The PGA Tour Fall Swing continues with the World Wide Technology Championship at the Tiger Woods designed El Cardonal at Diamante in Los Cabos, Mexico. Two U.S. Ryder Cuppers lead the field this week with Ben Griffin and J.J. Spaun teeing it up alongside many players deeper in the world rankings per a typical Fall event. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

El Cardonal is a typical par 72 course with four par 5s and four par 3s, coming in at 7452 yards. We do have two years of history here, but no stroke-level data, so most of our insights are at the round level. This course has a very high fairway hit rate and GIR rate, playing relatively easily. Players average just over 5 birdies per round and less than 2 birdies per round here. Relative to the last two years, the course is pretty firm and might play a hair harder than years past, but probably won’t produce materially different results. We expect the winner to remain at -20 or better.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: With wide fairways, accuracy is not much of a premium this week. Length always helps, but longer hitters will be keeping their drivers in the bag for a few holes where the landing zones narrow out at longer distances. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 20% weight this week.

• APP: Since players will primarily be hitting their approach shots out of the fairways here, good approach play will be a separator. The greens are pretty sectioned so approach accuracy will yield plenty of birdie opportunities. Look for several shots coming from the 150-200 yard range. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 25% weight, and SG:APP from 150-200 yards in the fairway at an additional 15% weight.

• ATG: While players will be hitting tons of greens, when they do miss, scrambling is tough at this course. We don’t expect it to be a huge factor, but those that can scramble well will be able to save a stroke or two. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ATG on Bermuda grass at a 5% weight this week, and Scrambling at an additional 5%.

• Putting: This track yields a lot of birdies, so players will need to convert their birdie looks to go low. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT at a 20% weight, and BoB% at an additional 10% weight.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Ben Griffin, scoring a perfect 10 on the BTN Model. His worst finish in his last 5 events was a T12 so he’s definitely in good form right now.

Matchup of the Week (14-12-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Rico Hoey (-110) ✅ over Max Greyserman (-110) on DraftKings

The oddsmaker nerds suggest an even matchup this week at the World Wide Technology Championship, but we feel very confident that Hoey will take down Greyserman for another BTN victory. We’ll look to the matchup tool first, and we see no disagreement at all from the motherboard, as Hoey shows a clear advantage from a measured stat standpoint head-to-head with Greyserman. Both players have shown some good form lately, but Hoey has clearly been the better overall player, while Greyserman has shown some technical difficulties at times. When we also look at the broader picture from a modeling and field standpoint, Hoey definitely tracks here, ranking in the Top 10 overall in our proprietary BTN Model versus Greyserman, who sits way back in the 45th slot. This one might come down to Sunday, but we feel confident Hoey will have us doing the robot dance to the payout window again this week.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his World Wide Technology Championship picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

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Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number