The PGA Tour takes on the Truist Championship this week at Quail Hollow in Charlotte, North Carolina. This is the first time the Truist has been at Quail, with the PGA being here last year and this event being the Wells Fargo for as long as it has. We’re back with another Signature Event, a field without Scottie Scheffler, and it's definitely going to be an eventful week. We’ve got some rain hitting Charlotte today and tomorrow, already affecting the tee times in the first two rounds, with some potential for more storms coming late Sunday. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Quail is the PGA Tour’s Fortune 100 annual stop. Corporate as it comes, but an elite brand nonetheless. It ranks as one of the longer courses we see every year, coming in at just under 7,600 yards. A par 71 with only three par 5’s and a couple of other scoreable holes, this course demands length and precision. Holes 8 and 14 are two incredible risk/reward driveable Par 4’s… so if we’re lucky, maybe we’ll even catch the first ace on a par 4 since 2001 on the PGA Tour.

Contrary to last year’s PGA, we’ve got minimal rough this week and more of a firm and fast golf course. The greens are really fast and sloped, so made putts are harder to come by than normal. It’s also worth noting that the sub-air system beneath the greens will defer some of the softness that this rain will bring.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Hit the ball far here, boys! You’ll want the distance OTT to give you the opportunity for the shorter, higher approach shots into these firm greens. Especially if this rain ends up really softening the course, the guys who get it out there are going to have the advantage. We’ve got standard SG: OTT combined with Carry Distance in our model this week for a total of 25% weight.

• APP: A long golf course naturally means some long approach shots. We’ve been here before, we’re focused on 175-225yd APP shots combined with standard SG: APP. We’ve got 50% of our model focused on approach shots this week.

• ATG: Quail isn’t necessarily the easiest course to chip on, but the conditions are always immaculate. The greens are fast and sloped, so if you do miss the green, you need to have a sharp short game to avoid big mistakes. We’ve included standard SG: ARG at 10% weight this week in our model.

• Putting: Quail has fast, firm, and sloped greens. The way you can separate yourself from the pack is by converting those short to mid-range putts. We’ve included standard SG: Putting and SG: Putting from 4-10’ in our model this week, both stats filtered to overseed greens, weighting 15% total in our model.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Adam Scott & Cameron Young. We don’t have Scottie this week; we’ve got a red hot Cam Young and Matt Fitzpatrick playing some outstanding golf. Adam Scott, coming off a T4 last week at Doral, popping as a perfect 10 in our model week is something to keep an eye on 👀

Matchup of the Week (7-5-2) 🤼‍♂️ 

Adam Scott (-118) ✅ over Sam Burns (-110) on DraftKings

We had to sweat it all the way through Sunday last week, but Sam Burns finally got us across the finish line over Hideki Matsuyama. Yay for us. Now we’re doing what any responsible golf bettor would do: immediately turning around and fading the guy who just won us money. So, we’re turning the page and turning the tables with Adam Scott over Burns this week at the Truist Championship at Quail Hollow Club.

You have to be impressed with the way Scott has played this year. At the ripe age of 45, he’s quietly been solid week in and week out, making the cut in every start with five top 25s and two top 5 finishes, including last week at the Cadillac. Perhaps we should also mention he checks in at number one in the BTN Custom Model this week for Quail Hollow. The putter is always the concern with Scott, but he’s been excellent with his irons, especially the long irons, which are a key piece of our model this week.

Burns has certainly not been bad by any stretch. He’s still one of the best putters on the planet and has played solid golf overall, but the short game has been sus at best this year. At a place like Quail Hollow, that could very well be the difference in this matchup.

It’s another no-cut event this week, so we’ll have to ride this one all the way to Sunday, but our bet is on Adam Scott to flush Sam Burns out the covey this week and take us back to the payout window again.

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Best of luck this week!

Ryan L.

Bet The Number