The People’s Open has arrived! Before we get into our typical newsletter, we have to share what we’ve been cooking up to bet one of the best holes in all of golf in Hole 16 at the Stadium Course.

New BTN Page Fully Dedicated to Hole 16 ⛳️ 

We’ve built a fully dedicated page for Hole 16 that has all the data you’re going to need if you’re betting Hole 16 props. The books are offering tons of lines for the Coliseum Hole including total birdies and GIRs for the event and each round, hole scoring props, closest to the pin props, group scores and GIRs, and much more. We have detailed breakdowns of all historical prop results at the hole including filtering by pin zone. We’re also going to be adding to this page before the guys tee off tomorrow with grouping analysis, live stats, and more. Stay tuned!

One major takeaway - the pin matters quite a bit on hole 16 as those front pins are much more friendly than the back pins.

BTN Boots on the Ground at the WMPO

Our very own BTN Ryan is going to be at the WMPO for rounds 1-3 using BTN to fire on hole 16 bets directly from the grandstands. Follow along on our X page all weekend.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Alright, back to regularly scheduled programming. TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 coming in at 7,261 yards. Looking at the BTN Course Insights feature, there aren’t many stat categories where this course varies far from average besides a low fairway rate and longer than average proximity. As for conditions this week, the course is going to play fast as usual, and the rough is a bit lighter than normal. We’re looking at a potentially windy morning tomorrow but otherwise mild and sunny conditions. Shaping up to be a great weekend at TPC Scottsdale.

Let’s take a look at this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: This is a driver heavy course with 13 driver holes and a relatively low rough penalty. Interestingly, though, the bomber’s paradise reading is pretty low here as the short hitters don’t find themselves losing too many strokes beyond average for their distance. OTT play will be a big factor though, and the BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at 30% weight this week.

• APP: Look for lots of mid-irons as players are hitting ~6 shots per round from 175-225 yards on approach. Guys with a higher apex height will have an advantage as they have an easier time holding the fast greens. The rough penalty is pretty minimal as well with the dormant Bermuda grass and not much of a factor. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 10% weight, plus an additional 10% weight on SG:APP from 175 - 225 yards from the tee and fairway. We’ve also added Apex Height at an additional 10% weight.

• ATG: With the firm greens, players will be looking to scramble a few times per round to save pars. The BTN Model includes standard SG: ATG at a 15% weight this week.

• Putting: We’re looking at fast Overseed greens here at TPC Scottsdale where guys will need to make some birdies to climb the leaderboard. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT from 8-16’ on Overseed at a 15% weight.

• Par 5s: The three par 5s here are pretty gettable and present a good opportunity for birdies. We’ve included Par 5 Scoring as an additional 10% weight in our model this week.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. Coming off a win at the AmEx last week, Scottie’s already in great form and a force to be reckoned with early in the season. We see you, golf X, where the w/o Scottie markets have been getting hammered this week.

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (1-2-0) 🤼‍♂️ 

Cam Young (+100) ✅ over Xander Schauffele (-134) on DraftKings

We’re back baby! It was an easy win for us last week with Sam Stevens over Will Zalatoris at the Farmers, so let’s keep this ship headed in the right direction and even up our record this week at the Waste Management Open.

We’ve got a heavyweight matchup with Cam Young as an even money underdog against Xander Schauffele, and we’ll gladly take the value here on Cam. These two are extremely close in the overall custom BTN model, and they both also have excellent course history. That leads us to the matchup tool where there’s a clear edge in most stat categories across the board for Cam Young.

There’s certainly potential for a bounce back week for Xander coming off a missed cut, but Cam has been incredibly consistent since his breakthrough win at the Wyndham, with four top 10 finishes in his last six starts leading into this week. Give me the guy trending the right way at plus money in a matchup this tight.

And when the volume cranks up and the vibes get weird at TPC Scottsdale, I want the pick that stays composed while everyone else is shotgunning transfusions on 16. We’re keeping this play clean, simple, and profitable, then wheeling Xander right out to the curb like it’s pickup day.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account this year for all of his BTN free plays.

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We’re stoked for one of the most fun events on the PGA Tour schedule. Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

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