Hello golf bettors! We’re still coming down from the high of THE PLAYERS and the 🥜 on Cam Young with his tee shots on 17 and 18. What a win and what an exciting Sunday at THE PLAYERS (Sorry Ludvig backers 😅 ).

This week we look toward the Valspar Championship as the 2026 Florida swing comes to a close. Fortunately we have a stronger field than recent years for this event and plenty of opportunity to keep taking money from the books. Let’s dive into it.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is a tree-lined 7,352 yard par 71 with five par 3s, and features a tough closing stretch dubbed the Snake Pit. Looking at the BTN Course Insights module, we see quite a bit of red here with materially low fairway hit rate and GIR %, tougher scoring to par with both less birdies and more bogeys than average, and difficult par 4 and par 5 scoring. The Copperhead Course does not play materially easier than Tour average in any metric we are tracking.

As for conditions, the rough is a bit shorter than usual but thicker and more lush which will counteract any potential relief. The weather looks pristine for this weekend which means we will likely see scoring in-line or slightly easier than average here.

Let’s take a look at this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: The Copperhead Course puts a premium on accuracy. There are several less than driver holes as players are typically only hitting the big stick 10 times per round, and getting out of position means potential tree trouble. Bombers will have an advantage on par 5s which aren’t reachable for all players, but the course only ranks a 4.8 on the bomber’s paradise scale which means they don’t have much advantage elsewhere. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 25% weight this week, and an additional 10% weight on Distance from Edge of Fairway to reward accuracy.

• APP: The key approach distance range is 125-200 yards. With lower than average GIR rates, hitting greens is essential to staying in contention. Also worth noting - hitting out of the rough can be a bit of a potluck depending on the lie and line. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 30% weight this week, plus an additional 10% weight on SG:APP from 125-200 yds in the fairway and tee box, and a 5% bump on Apex Height to better hold greens.

• ATG: With low GIR rates, there will be plenty of rough and bunker chipping. Short game is a factor worth including in models this week. The BTN Model includes SG: ATG at a 10% weight this week.

• Putting: The course offers some tough lag putts which makes the 6-10 foot range important both for converting birdies and saving pars when out of position on approach. The BTN Model includes standard SG:PUTT at a 10% weight.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Austin Smotherman. Austin has been a darling of the betting community early this year with great recent form including a T2 at the Cognizant and a T13 last week at THE PLAYERS. Worth noting, however - Austin’s wife is on baby watch. Buyer beware!

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (4-4-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Jordan Spieth (-110) over Ben Griffin (-120) on DraftKings

We cashed easily at The Players last week with Adam Scott over Ben Griffin, so naturally, we’re going right back to the well and fading Mr. Griffin again. This time, it’s Jordan Spieth as the slight dog.

Yes, Spieth is still under the microscope every week because he hasn’t found the winner’s circle in a while, but he’s been playing solid golf. He’s posted four straight top-30 finishes and checks in 33rd in the BTN proprietary model this week. That’s more than good enough in this matchup.

Griffin, meanwhile, sits just behind him at 35th in the model, but the recent form is much shakier than that suggests. He’s missed two straight cuts and has lost strokes tee to green, off the tee, and on approach over his last four starts. As a website built to help you make smarter bets, we can safely say that is not the trend we’re looking to back.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook always has a little chaos in it, and the Snake Pit has wrecked plenty of Sundays. But if this thing gets weird, give us Spieth all day. He may not make it boring, but boring is overrated when the ticket cashes.

GS Luke’s Prop Picks 🎯 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account this year for all of his BTN free plays.

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Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

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