April Fools! Had some Beehiv content saving issues on that last one, what a perfect day for that mistake 😂

Hello golf bettors! We have officially reached the final event before the Masters is upon us. Coming off an inspirational win from Gary Woodland in Houston, The Valero Texas Open features a competitive field as we’ve got some guys trying to work on their form heading into Augusta while others are trying to earn their spot in the field next week. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

TPC San Antonio plays as a par 72 with four par 5’s and four par 3’s. The course plays on the longer side, but our boots on the ground this week are telling us that they’ve never seen this little rough on this course before. Normally scoring is relatively difficult as players average 0.25 less birdies per round vs. Tour average, 0.2 more bogeys per round, and Fairway and GIR rates 8% and 6% lower than average respectively. With less rough, we’ll see if it plays any easier this week

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Have to group it tight out here, you cannot spray it but you don’t have to be deadly accurate. Length helps but isn’t always essential here. With little to no rough this week, The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 10% weight this week, and an additional 10% weight on Distance from Edge of Fairway

• APP: Approach is harder than average this week, with lots of mid to long range shots expected. Wedges for par 5’s and a few short par 4’s. The wedge shots will separate players as they have to be controlled with the wind forecasted this week. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 25% weight this week along with SG:APP from 75-125 yards at an additional 15% weight.

• ATG: There is not a lot of correlation to success here with Around the Green shots, so this stat is weighted less heavily in the BTN Model. One thing to note is that greenside bunkers play very difficult here as they are deep and well off the green. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ARG at a 10% weight this week.

• Putting: Overseeded greens make for smooth putting surfaces here. Lag putting and shorter putts are key this week, we’ll see plenty of 6-10 foot par attempts. The BTN Model includes SG:Putting on Overseeded greens at a 15% weight along with Bogey Avoidance at an additional 15%.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Russell Henley. He’s actually tied with Tommy Fleetwood and Si Woo Kim at a perfect BTN Score of 10/10, and are closely followed by 4 more at 9.9/10… so let’s hope for an exciting finish in San Antonio before we head down Magnolia Lane next week!

Matchup of the Week (6-4-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Jordan Spieth (+100) ✅ over Ludvig Aberg (-132) on DraftKings

Sigh. It’s a shame Ben Griffin isn’t in the field this week, because after a three-week run of slapping him around in Matchup Play, we were just starting to have some fun. But with Griffin off the board, we’ll call off the dogs and take on a much tougher test this week by backing Jordan Spieth as an even-money underdog over Ludvig Aberg.

Listen, we all know Spieth can be maddening. At times he looks like a wizard, and at other times he looks like a man trying to solve a Rubik’s Cube during an earthquake. But the results have actually been pretty steady this year. In seven starts on Tour, Spieth has posted four top 25s and three top 15s. A lot of that has been driven by strong iron play and ball striking, especially over his last three starts. He also checks in 10th in the custom BTN Model this week.

Aberg, on the other hand, has been a little trickier to pin down. The ceiling is obviously sky high, and we saw that at The Players for three days, right up until Sunday happened. To his credit, he’s still been very good lately with back-to-back top 5 finishes coming into this week. But despite the recent form, Aberg ranks just 38th in the BTN Model.

So we’ll trust the Matchup Tool once again, tip the cap to the Texas kid, and mosey on over to the payout window with Jordan Spieth at plus money.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account for all of his BTN free plays.

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Best of luck this week!

Ryan L.

Bet The Number