The final event in the FedEx Cup playoffs has arrived with the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club as the top 30 players on the PGA Tour compete to take home the FedEx Cup. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

East Lake Golf Club is the regular venue for the TOUR Championship, so we have plenty of data on the course from years past. The course is back to a par 70 after a brief one-year stint as a par 71 as hole 14 was moved back to a par 4. There’s been some chatter that the Tour is trying to setup the course harder than usual this year, but our on-course intel reports that there’s not too much of a difference from years past. Winning scores will look a bit different, however, with every player starting at level-par in this year’s event. Sorry, Scottie - no 10-under start for you this year (not that it matters, right?)

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Fairways are pretty wide here, and players will be taking driver on most par 4s and 5s. The rough is pretty penal, but interestingly quite patchy and inconsistent throughout the course - thick in some spots and not quite as bad in others. With that, some luck will come into play for those missing fairways this week. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 25% weight.

• APP: Players will be hitting plenty of shots from the top and bottom of their bag, but not so many mid-irons. The Approach Distribution chart on the Course page is a bit misleading as most of the 126-175 shots are actually in the 126-150 range. The greens are very sectioned here, so hitting the right section on approach will play a big factor in birdie looks vs. a potential 3-putt. The BTN Model includes SG:APP from 100-150 yards in the fairway at a 20% weight this week, and SG:APP from 180-220 yards from the tee/fairway at an additional 20% weight.

• ATG: The zoysia grass around the green at East Lake doesn’t play too difficult. Chipping will come into play for some of the holes that require long-irons in where players will be looking to save par with an up-and-down. The BTN Model includes standard Scrambling as our ATG stat this week at a 15% weight.

• Putting: The greens at East Lake are fast with lots of slope. As mentioned in APP, they’re sectioned greens, so most players will be looking at either a birdie attempt or a lag putt depending on their approach shot. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT from 6-12’ to capture the birdie looks, and 3-putt avoidance to capture lag putting skill.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Rory McIlroy. Believe it or not, Rory surpasses Scottie in this week’s model with slightly better approach play in key yardage buckets and better putting from 6-12’.

Matchup of the Week (12-9-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Harry Hall (+100) ✅ over Corey Conners (-105) on DraftKings

They say scared money don’t make money, and this week we’re not scared to back Harry Hall as a plus-money dog against Corey Conners at East Lake. Hall has been nothing but consistent with 10 top-25s in his last 11 starts, while Conners has been stumbling since his WD at the U.S. Open with just one top-10 and little else of note. The BTN Matchup Tool shows it close but still leans Hall across key categories. Our East Lake model likes him even more, slotting Hall inside the top 10, with Conners trailing behind. Call it confidence, call it a heater—we’re rolling with the Englishman and his scally cap to finish the season by knocking off Conners.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his TOUR Championship picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

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Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number