Hello golf bettors! The Texas Children’s Houston Open has arrived - the first of two events in a quick Texas swing leading up to the Masters. Only three players in the OWGR top 20 are set to tee it up this weekend (Chris Gotterup, Ben Griffin, and Harris English), but there’s still plenty of competition with a packed list of names ranking from 30 and beyond. Let’s dive into the numbers for the Houston Open with Bet The Number.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

One note for course research: this event was played in November prior to 2024. The course plays quite differently in March, so we’d recommend sticking to 2024 and 2025 data.

Memorial Park Golf Course is a relatively long par 70 coming in at 7,475 yards. Looking at the BTN Course Insights module, we don’t see the course stray from Tour average on too many stats except a lower fairway hit rate, a higher approach proximity, and slightly more difficult close-range putting. The first two make sense given two key design elements of the course: essentially nonexistent rough, and large green complexes.

Let’s take a look at this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: Accuracy is not much of a factor off the tee given there’s essentially no rough to note and a very low missed fairway penalty. Bombs away. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 25% weight this week, and an additional 15% weight on ball speed to reward those that can shorten their second shots.

• APP: Approach shots tend to take on the mid-to-longer variety here given the length of the course. The key distance bucket we’re looking at is 150-200 yard approach shots. As mentioned, the rough is not a factor and not worth modeling this week. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 25% weight this week, plus an additional 15% weight on SG:APP from 150-200 yds in the fairway and tee box.

• ATG: Memorial Park has plenty of fairway collection areas where players who miss the green will be chipping from. There are a few greenside bunkers which are best to avoid, but they’re not plentiful. The BTN Model includes SG: ATG from the fairway at a 20% weight this week.

• Putting: With large overseed greens and lower prox numbers, lag putting becomes a factor, as do mid-range birdie putts. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT on overseed greens at a 15% weight.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Nicolai Hojgaard. With no rough penalty to note, it’s no surprise the bomber has surfaced in the BTN Model. Some other interesting names round out the top 5: Marco Penge, Sudarshan Yellamaraju, David Ford, and Jesper Svensson. Should be a fun week.

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (5-4-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Nicolai Hojgaard (-116) over Ben Griffin (-112) on DraftKings

Ho hum, just another winner last week with Spieth over Ben Griffin. So yes, we’re going back to the well for a third straight time and siding with the No. 1 player in the BTN Model, Nicolai Hojgaard, to lasso Griffin at Memorial Park this week.

At some point, “third time’s a charm” stops being a saying and just becomes a betting strategy. Griffin has now missed three straight cuts, and the problems keep showing up in the same places. He’s losing strokes off the tee and on approach, which is a brutal combo anywhere, but especially at Memorial Park where the driver can be a real weapon.

And that brings us to Nicolai. He absolutely mashes it. Hojgaard ranks 4th in this field in Ball Speed, so the firepower off the tee is very real. He’s also 2nd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is a pretty handy combo when you’re trying to separate from a guy who’s currently fighting it in all the wrong areas. The form is there, too, with two top 10s and a couple more top 30s in his last five starts.

We hate to keep picking on Ben Griffin and those sick shades, but we like cashing tickets a whole lot more. This week, we’re tipping the cap to Nicolai Hojgaard.

GS Luke’s Prop Picks 🎯 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account this year for all of his BTN free plays.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number