You might be reading this bundled up with a hot cup of cocoa looking out over snow-covered hills, daydreaming about pulling your clubs from a deep hibernation. Thankfully, the dead of winter is no problem for the PGA Tour as the 2026 season kicks off this week with the Sony Open in Honolulu, Hawaii. Let’s throw on our leis, dust off our ukuleles, put a mini umbrella in a fruity drink, and begin another great PGA Tour season. We’re thrilled to be back.

ICYMI - Brand New BTN Functionality ⭐️ 

In case you missed it in our latest newsletter, we are coming in hot with some sweet new functionality for the 2026 PGA Tour season including a brand new Round Props page, a brand new Course Insights feature, more live stats on the Round Props and Hole Props page, improved mobile views for custom models and live stats, performance improvements, and more. Check out the full series of enhancements (including screenshots) here. Or even better, sign up for a free trial and see for yourself.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Okay, back to regularly scheduled programming. Waialae Country Club is a par 70 coming in at 7044 yards. Let’s look at our brand new Course Insights feature in BTN to see what stands out about the course. Some stats that pop include a top 25% GIR rate, top 25% scrambling rate, very low par 5 scoring, and better-than-average proximities on tee shots. All this shapes up for some good scoring opportunities as confirmed by recent winners at -16 or better.

As for course conditions, we do have a few items worth reporting from our 🥾 boots on the ground intel. The course currently features some of the longest and thickest rough we’ve ever seen here which can put fairways at a higher premium than usual here. Overall the course is much more plush than usual. The greens are still relatively soft but should firm up by the weekend.

Let’s take a look at this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: With a bomber’s paradise score of 7.5, long hitters do have more of an advantage at this course than average. However, bombers beware of left misses as this side of the course can be extra penal with the layouts on some of these holes. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 15% weight this week, plus Left Rough Tendency at an additional 10%.

• APP: Approach shots are on the shorter side here with only a few longer approaches per round. With the thicker rough and a relatively low fairway hit rate, we’re putting a bit of a boost on those that play well with short looks out of the rough. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 35% weight, and SG:APP from 100-150 yards in the rough at an additional 10% weight.

• ATG: Short game is pretty typical for bermuda here and a bit less of a factor with the higher GIR rates. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ATG from bermuda at a 10% weight this week.

• Putting: The greens are also typical bermuda grass greens, and players will have plenty of looks at birdies. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT on bermuda at a 10% weight, and an additional 10% weight on SG:PUTT from 8-20’ to reward those that can capitalize on birdie looks.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Ben Griffin. Ben was on fire in his last several starts including a win at the WWT, solo second at the Procore, and a solid playoff run in the FedEx Cup. We’ll see if he can carry this success into the new season.

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (0-0-0) 🤼‍♂️ 

Denny McCarthy (-110) ✅ over Chris Gotterup (-115) on DraftKings

We’ve finally arrived at the first tournament of 2026, the Sony Open, and we feel really good about starting the year off with a winner here. This matchup is the classic “power vs polish” setup: Gotterup brings plenty of pop, but Denny is the more complete player and one of the best putters you’ll find in a field like this.

The matchup tool backs it up too. Denny is leading in most categories, and the biggest separator is putting. That’s a pretty nice thing to have in your corner at Waialae, where you typically need to keep the pedal down in a birdie fest and cash in on your chances.

Gotterup was a hot name last year, no doubt, but his Sony Open history is thin: one start, one missed cut. Denny, on the other hand, has been steady in Honolulu. He’s made four straight cuts at Waialae, and he’s posted top 25 finishes in each of his last two trips.

We’re rolling with the proven course fit and the elite flatstick. Give us Denny walking off Sunday with a little Sony Walkman vibe, and us dancing our way to the payout window to start 2026.

As an added sprinkle, we’re taking Chris Gotterup o68.5 round score in R1 at +110 on DraftKings. Using the new BTN Round Props page, we can see a historical scoring average of 68.78 at the Sony, and this creeps up to 69.3 in R1s here. With the extra juice at plus odds, we like this play for some extra alpha on Gotterup coming out the gate sluggish.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke had an incredible 2025 season making prop picks with BTN, and looks to continue his dominance over the books in the 2026 season. All of his BTN free plays will be on his X account this year, so be sure to give him a follow.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

We are stoked to kick off the 2026 season with the best community in golf betting. Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number