The PGA Tour Fall Swing continues this week with the Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson in Jackson, Mississippi. There are a few notable names in the field like Akshay Bhatia and Min Woo Lee, but we’re primarily looking at players deeper in the OWGR rankings. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

The Country Club of Jackson is a longer par 72 with four par 5s and four par 3s. The par 5s are especially long here, with many 3 woods on second shots. The course looks pretty standard this year compared to prior years, and is in great shape with perfect greens and relatively mild rough. There is no rain in the forecast so we might see the course firm up a bit as play wears on, but we don’t expect any major outlier conditions. Look for a winner to be sitting right around the -20 mark.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Length is at a premium here. There’s only one hole where players won’t be hitting driver, and with the long par 5s, longer hitters will definitely have an advantage. The rough penalty isn’t too high, so accuracy is not as much of a factor. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 25% weight, and Par 5 Scoring at an additional 15% weight.

• APP: Players will hit a lot of second shots under 175 yards which is the primary separation for approach play. Besides this, since most second shots on par 5s will be 250+ yds, some savvy modelers might factor in SG:APP from 250+. For this week, the BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 10% weight, and SG:APP from 100-175 yards in the fairway at 30% weight.

• ATG: Around the green play is fairly standard here with grainy Bermuda lies around the greens. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ATG at a 5% weight this week.

• Putting: The greens are very fast, so speed control on lag putts will be a factor. Besides this, we’re looking at pure Bermuda greens. Guys will be making plenty of putts from within 20 feet this week. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT on Bermuda at a 25% weight.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Rasmus Hojgaard, fresh off a Ryder Cup victory with Team Europe. Also in the top 5 is defending champ Kevin Yu looking to defend his title.

Matchup of the Week (13-11-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Emiliano Grillo (-110) ✅ over Alex Smalley (-110) on DraftKings

It’s a good old-fashioned chicken fight in Mississippi, and we’re backing the Argentinian to strut out of the ring. Grillo rolls in with real momentum, fresh off a T4 at the Procore Championship where he stacked four rounds in the 60s and looked fully in control tee-to-green. Smalley, on the other hand, has been pecking around without much to show for it, missing the cut in 4 of his last 6 starts. Our BTN Matchup Tool shows Grillo with the edge across the key stats, and he lands #4 in the overall BTN model this week (Smalley #19). Books have this priced as a coin flip, but our numbers say the pecking order isn’t even. Add in Grillo’s tendency to cash when the putter cooperates and the driver behaves, and you have the exact profile we want at a gettable Sanderson setup. Even odds, clear edge. We’ll take Grillo -110 and let Smalley wear the frown when the feathers settle.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his Sanderson Farms Championship picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

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Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number