Today’s newsletter will be a little different, as one of our founders was fortunate to be on the Team USA stats & analytics team back at the 2018 Ryder Cup. I’m Ryan, writing from first-hand experience of what it was like playing a (very) small role in one of the most incredible sports weeks we are blessed with every two years. Let the record state I’ve had absolutely zero involvement with the Ryder Cup since the infamous “Slaughter by the Water” back in 2021.

The suspense has been building up since Rory McIlroy boldly claimed 5 seconds after victory in Rome that the Europeans were going to come to Bethpage and win an away Ryder Cup. A lot of drama has unfolded since then, from the idea of a Keegan being a playing captain to the more recent money talks and where the priorities of each team lies (mainly stewed up by the media).

None of that matters now. We’re one day away from the first tee shot. Every player in each of those locker rooms wants to do anything they can to get points for their team. The players want the blowout. They want to bury their opponent in front of a home crowd or shock the world and do what only a handful have done… win an away Ryder Cup. As a fan, you want a battle. You want the matches to come down to the last hole and to witness the best golf in the highest pressure moments.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

We’ve only seen this course twice in the last 10 years, with the PGA Championship here back in 2019 and the 2016 Barclays. Bethpage isn’t setup quite like a Major venue this week. They’ve widened the fairways, they’ve cut the rough and it’s likely going to be soft with the forecast we’re expecting. It’s playing at ~7,350 yards as a par 70 and I think we’re going to see a lot of birdies this week.

The home team gets to control the setup of the golf course, and naturally the stats & analytics team plays a role in how the course should be setup to favor their team. Or at the very least, keep your opponent from having an edge against you.

Bethpage is a pretty balanced course on Odds/Evens when it comes to the par 3s and 5s. Both the Odds and Evens have two par 3s and one par 5. The even holes do favor a draw, and you’ll see longer approaches in on the odds.

It is actually pretty wild how statistically different a Foursomes pairing can be if you simply flip which player tees off on Odds/Evens. There is a two-sided conversation that happens here, with the analytics teams showing the captains who the more optimal pairings are and then the players personal preference of what holes they want to tee off on. The first hole tee shot of any Ryder Cup is infamous for being the most nervous they’ve ever been in their lives.

Without being dramatic, picking the correct Foursome pairings could literally be the difference of winning or losing a Ryder Cup.

Pairings 👥 

This is a VERY exciting year for pairings. We’ve got 4 rookies on the US roster this year that are up there as some of the better players in the field. We don’t have the Justin Thomas/Jordan Spieth pairing, and the only “historical” pairing we’ve got is the Xander & Cantlay foursome pairing. Then you have the Europeans coming in with the same captain and an almost identical team from 2023, the only difference swapping out a brother.

Picking pairings is a huge part of the contribution of the stats & analytics teams. It is incredible what is possible when it comes to forecasting what can happen before it does. At the end of the day, it’s the captains decision who goes out how and when. It was our job to ensure they have all the information they can to make the best decision for the team.

I’ll go through a few foursomes pairings that I think we’ll see based off the practice pods we’ve seen

Team USA Foursomes

• Xander Schauffele & Patrick Cantlay: Our only pairing that’s had multiple cups worth of experience together. They lost both matches together in Rome, but that was up against two of the best pairings that Europe sent out. They are 2-0 together at home in Foursomes and strong chemistry between the two. I would expect this pairing in the first session and then again Saturday morning if it goes well. Xander on the odds and Patrick on the evens

• Justin Thomas & Cameron Young: I wouldn’t be shocked if JT only played in the opening foursomes session. JT’s game matched up with Bethpage this week doesn’t look ideal, but like Keegan said he was born to play in Ryder Cups. I think this would be an exciting pairing with a Ryder Cup veteran and the quiet hometown rookie. Cam on the odds and JT on the evens.

• Scottie Scheffler & Russell Henley: There’s no sugar coating it. We need Scottie to go out there and play at least 4 matches and get points in all of them. Once Russ drains that first putt, he’ll settle in and be off to the races. Need these guys to deliver. Scottie on the odds and Russ on the evens.

Team EUR Foursomes

• Viktor Hovland & Ludvig Aberg: They beat Scottie & Brooks 9&7 in Rome. I’d be absolutely stunned if we don’t see them again. Ludvig on the odds and Viktor on the evens.

• Jon Rahm & Tyrrell Hatton: I don’t know if I need to say more than LIV teammates and 2-0 together in Rome foursomes. Europe sent them out for the first match in Rome, maybe they’ll do it again? Rahm on the odds and Hatton on the evens.

• Rory McIlroy & Tommy Fleetwood: Another contender for the opening pairing on Friday. This is a pairing that could sway the crowd. If they come out and make a statement early it could be trouble for the Americans. Rory on the odds and Tommy on the evens.

As I’m typing this, I don’t like it but I think Europe is in the better position. They’ve got nothing to lose because they’re the underdogs and everything to gain with an away victory. They have some solid pairing opportunities at their disposal. The US has a few more wildcards with some of our more seasoned veterans not necessarily being in top form.

The BTN Ryder Cup Model

We’ve got 24 of the best players in the world at this event, the BTN Ryder Cup 2025 model is relatively simple and broken down with the following stats:

• OTT: Bethpage is definitely not a short course. There’s only 2 non par 3 holes where players likely aren’t hitting driver. Standard SG:OTT per round vs. field weighted at 35%

• APP: There’s going to be a lot of approaches 165 yards and further, so the BTN Model features standard SG:APP per round vs. field and SG:APP from 165+ yards vs. Tour baseline, weighted at 10% and 25% respectively

• Scrambling: You’re going to miss greens in the Ryder Cup, 10% weighting on the ability to get up and down.

• Putting: Those 5-15 footers… the ones you dream of to win a Ryder Cup, could actually be the difference maker. We’ve weighted SG:Putting 5-15’ vs. Tour baseline at 20%

This week’s BTN Model favorite is Scottie Scheffler, scoring a near perfect 9.6. Our top 10 is rounded out with 5 Americans and 5 Europeans… a recipe for an EXCITING Ryder Cup weekend.

Matchup of the Week (13-10-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Tommy Fleetwood (-130) ✅ over Xander Schauffele (+105) – Most Points

We hate fading the red, white, and blue, but this one’s just too good to pass up. Tommy Lad is checking nearly every box in the BTN Matchup Tool, and the form gap between these two couldn’t be more obvious. Fleetwood has been on a heater with four top-5s in his last six starts, capped off with a breakthrough win at the Tour Championship to lock up the FedEx Cup. Meanwhile, Xander hasn’t sniffed a top-10 since The Open in July and has looked…well, average by his standards all year.

The Ryder Cup résumé only tilts things further toward Tommy. He’s 7-3-2 in the event and forever etched in history as half of the “Moliwood” duo that torched Paris in 2018 at 4-0. Compare that to Xander’s 4-4 mark, and it feels like one guy thrives in this atmosphere while the other is still figuring it out. Bethpage will bring the noise, but we’ll ride with Fleetwood to rain on the American parade and cash as the rightful favorite.

Feature Spotlight 🔦

This week’s Feature Spotlight: Ryder Cup Page. Right now we’re just showing you the Ryder Cup performance of every player in this field. You can sort by team, format, number of matches and Point %. Call this version 1, with a lot more to come in the future.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

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There’s nothing better than The Ryder Cup. Enjoy this weekend and good luck with your bets!

Ryan L.

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