Well folks, we’ve arrived at the final PGA Tour event we’ll cover in 2025: The RSM Classic, played at Sea Island Golf Club in St. Simons Island, Georgia. The RSM features a slightly stronger field than other Fall swing events and is the last chance for players to secure their fully exempt Tour status for 2026 by finishing within the top 100 in the FedEx Cup season-long standings after this event. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

⚠️ Before we get into the breakdown, an important betting note: the first two rounds are played on two courses: the Seaside Course and the Plantation Course. Rounds 3 and 4 are played exclusively at the Seaside Course. ⚠️ 

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

The Seaside Course is a par 70 course coming in at 7005 yards with two par 5s and four par 3s, while the Plantation course is a par 72. We’ve got plenty of course history at the RSM, though we only have ShotLink data from the Seaside course, so this breakdown will primarily apply to the Seaside course. The first thing that jumps off the page looking at Course Stats is plenty of green course averages, including a high fairway rate and GIR rate, and low 3-putt % and bogey rate. Our boots on the ground intel reports that conditions are perfect this year as well, with some of the best weather the event has seen in years. We expect quite a few birdies and scoring to be lower than average for the RSM, with a winner probably landing in the mid-20s under par.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: With a relatively high fairway hit rate, low rough penalty, and a bomber’s paradise score of 7.1/10, we’re looking for distance hitters to gain an edge here. Some players will be able to exploit some really aggressive OTT play to get short looks in. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 15% weight this week.

• APP: Approach shots are heavy in the 120-180 yard range with plenty of 8, 9, PW shots. Guys will be throwing some darts out there with softer than usual conditions. Some modelers might want to include proximity stats to further reward the guys that can hit it close. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 20% weight, and SG:APP from 120-180 yards in the fairway at an additional 20% weight.

• ATG: Short game won’t be a huge factor at Sea Island as contenders will be hitting tons of greens. The grass is in great shape, isn’t overly grainy, and won’t pose too much of a challenge for those that miss a few greens. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ATG at a 10% weight this week.

• Putting: The greens are in perfect condition right now. They’re fast and don’t have a ton of overseed to them. Putting from 10-20’ will be a separator for those that can take advantage of their birdie looks. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT at a 10% weight, SG:PUTT from 10-20 feet at an additional 10%, and BoB% at a 15% weight.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Rico Hoey back again, with an impressive stretch of golf in his last four events including two T5s.

Matchup of the Week (15-13-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Thorbjorn Olesen (-115) ✅ over Denny McCarthy (-110) on DraftKings

It’s our final matchup play of the year, and we are rolling with the Thunder Bear himself, Thorbjorn Olesen, as the slight favorite over Denny McCarthy. Olesen comes in quietly humming with three top-15 finishes in his last four starts and a level of steady ball-striking that fits Sea Island perfectly.

Denny, meanwhile, has not teed it up at all this fall. He will arrive on the Golden Isles without any competitive reps, and there is usually some level of rust that comes with that. When we pull up the BTN Matchup Tool, the numbers lean toward Olesen in most major stat categories, and he also ranks higher in this week’s BTN tournament-specific model.

Denny has played well at Sea Island in the past, but we are siding with the player showing real form right now. Trust the trend, trust the tool, and trust Thunder Bear. We will ride him straight to the payout window at Sea Island.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his RSM Classic picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

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Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number