The PGA Tour takes on the Rocket (Mortgage no longer?) Classic this week at Detroit Golf Club in Detroit, Michigan. We’re coming off an exciting week at the Travelers, Ryder Cup talk is starting to heat up after USA Captain Keegan Bradley won in dramatic fashion, and we’re heading into a birdie fest this week in Detroit. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

This is the last year before a major renovation at Detroit Golf Club. It’s a true wedge fest out here, but don’t let the distance fool you. It’s a par 72 where the holes aren’t that long as a whole. Look for low scores, lots of birdie putts and a eagles to fly. Look for the course to get firm and fast if the weather allows for it, there might be some rain that comes through to cancel out the firm conditions we have heard about on the ground.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Drivers will be hit often this week, with many hitting 11 or 12 per round. The corridors, while treelined, are not narrow. The course is a 6.6/10 on the bomber’s paradise scale. We used the SG:OTT per round vs. field at a 35% weighting this week

• APP: There’s a shorter variety of approaches this week. Two par 3’s under 175 yards. Look for guys to take dead aim with simple surrounds and short clubs. We used the SG:APP per attempt vs. baseline within a 75-160 yard range at a 20% weighting this week

• ATG: Chipping will not be much of a factor this week… the contenders will hit a ton of GIRs. We used SG:ARG per round vs. field at a 5% weighting this week

• Putting: Look for the 8-15 footers to differentiate players with tons of birdie looks in that range. We used the SG:Putting per attempt vs. baseline in that range, filtered to Bent & Bent/Poa greens, at a 20% weighting this week

• Birdie or Better Percentage: We think there’s going to be low scores this week, so we once again threw in BoB to round out the model at a 20% weighting this week

This week’s BTN Model favorite is Keith Mitchell. The King of Thursdays could have some value this week at +160 for a T20 👀 You’ve got Patrick Cantlay, Erik Van Rooyen and Rico Hoey followed closely behind at 9.9 BTN ratings as well.

Matchup of the Week (6-7-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Patrick Cantlay (+105) ✅ over Collin Morikawa (-125) on DraftKings

This matchup brings in two big names, where we see a clear edge… and some juicy value with Cantlay sitting at plus money.

While Collin has been coasting in neutral, Cantlay has been quietly trending in the right direction. Over the last 24, the BTN Matchup Tool gives Cantlay the edge in nearly every key stat category… and that includes the big ones this week Approach play and Birdie or Better percentage.

At a course where wedge work and putting matter most, it’s not rocket science. The model has Patrick at #3 while Collin is at #13, the stats back it up, Collin and Greiner split up this week and he’s got a college teammate on the bag. We’ll ride Cantlay to the moon at plus odds

Feature Spotlight 🔦 

This week’s Feature Spotlight: Custom.. Custom Models. I know that we’ve talked about the custom model functionality on BTN, it’s the main sauce that we’ve got. But I’m not always sure people use it to its fullest potential.

It’s no secret that more and more golf bets are being offered than ever before. You have access to every single stat that the PGA Tour grants us, and the ability to see how each player differentiates from one another over any time frame at any point throughout the events.

A main use case that I like to utilize throughout a Live Tournament, is betting on Closest To the Pins on Par 3’s. I will create a model with SG:APP per attempt vs. the baseline within the hole yardage range combined with something like Proximity to the Hole and see how different groupings fare against each other.

So going back to the Morikawa/Cantlay/Keegan grouping this week, let’s look at hole 15 tomorrow and assume the hole will play 160 yards. I created a new custom model with those two metrics, weighing the SG:APP 155-165 at 70% and Proximity to Hole at 30%. And as you can see in the image below there’s a clear discrepancy between Keegan/Patrick & Collin in that approach window, so that could be something to look at when seeing what odds the books price that group coming through. If the number is right, we fire.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his Rocket Classic picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

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Best of luck this week!

Ryan L.

Bet The Number