The PGA Tour Fall Swing is officially underway with the Procore Championship at the Silverado Resort North Course in Napa, CA. What better wine pairing is there than some golf? Thanks to Captain Keegan, most of the American Ryder Cup team is in the field this week which gives us a handful of top players leading an otherwise middle-of-the-pack field. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Silverado is a par 72 with four par 5s (three of which are on the back 9) and four par 3s. At 7123 yards, the course is not overly long. Fairways are pretty tight, with a fairway hit rate just under 50% compared to the Tour avg of ~60%. However, this doesn’t impact much on the backend as we see higher GIRs, slightly more birdies per round, and 0.3 less bogeys per round than Tour average here. Conditions this year are softer than normal with a touch of rain that came through, and the rough is a big thicker than normal. That said, we’re looking at much of the same for this year’s event.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: With the narrow fairways at Silverado, accuracy will be a factor off the tee. At a 5.6/10 on the bombers paradise scale, we’re not looking at a huge distance advantage for the long hitters either. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 15% weight and driving accuracy at an additional 5% weight.

• APP: Players will be hitting plenty of short approach shots this week, averaging ~12 approach shots from 175 yards or less. With the low Fairway Hit rate as well, playing out of the rough will be a factor - though Silverado has an average rough penalty relative to other PGA Tour courses. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 20% weight, SG:APP from 100-175 yards in the fairway at 15% weight, and SG:APP from 100-150 yards in the rough at an additional 10% weight.

• ATG: Scrambling will be a factor with the amount of approach play coming from the rough. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ATG at a 10% weight this week, and gives scrambling an additional 5% weight.

• Putting: The greens at Silverado are bumpy poa which make for challenging putting. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT on poa at a 20% weight to reward good putters on poa greens.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. Interestingly though, none of Scottie’s Ryder Cup teammates have cracked the top 5 of the BTN model, though we do see Russell Henley, Ben Griffin, and Patrick Cantlay coming in at 7, 8, and 9 respectively.

Matchup of the Week (12-10-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Mark Hubbard (-110) ✅ over Matt McCarty (-110) on DraftKings

The books may have this one dead even, but we see a clear edge with Mark Hubbard this week over Matt McCarty. The BTN Matchup Tool backs it up, giving “Homeless Hubbs” the nod across most key stats. Hubbard is trending nicely — coming off a T3 at the Wyndham— and he loves Silverado, cashing top-25 finishes in 3 of his last 5 trips here. McCarty, meanwhile, is making his debut at this track. That’s a tall order against a guy with proven course chops and recent momentum. It might look like a coin flip on paper, but we’re siding with Hubbs to keep you from being down in the dumps and get you headed straight to the cash-out window in Napa. Cheers!

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his Procore Championship picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

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Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number