Hello golf bettors! Welcome to PLAYERS week. Today was a huge day for the PGA Tour as Brian Rolapp announced a series of improvements including more signature events, a return to full-size fields, promotion and relegation, and the potential for matchplay in the playoffs. Seems the PGA Tour is finally listening to its fans which we love to see. However, while we’re excited about these changes, we’re here to talk about THE PLAYERS Championship.

The Hole Hangout is Locked and Loaded ⛳️ 

We were so excited for THE PLAYERS and all the hole prop edges we've been cashing in on the last few weeks, that we decided to analyze pin positions for every. single. hole. at TPC Sawgrass. Does the PGA Tour provide us automated pin data? Sure doesn't. Did we spend hours combing through the PGA Tour Communications X account manually logging past pin sheets? Sure did.

The Hole Hangout includes:

• Historical stats to every single pin 📊

• Live prop counters on every hole 🧮

• Upcoming group analysis by hole including live stats and recent form 👥

We’ve built the Hole Hangout as your one-stop-shop to take advantage of the massive edges available on betting Hole Props. Sign up for a free 7-day trial today to check out the Hole Hangout and all our other functionality including live stat tracking, live scoring conditions, custom modeling, round prop analysis, matchup analysis, and much, much more.

Also, if you want to join the fun with us, tag along in the btn-betting-chat channel of the Tour Junkies Discord this weekend where we’ve been raking it in the last couple weeks with the Hole Hangout. Hope to see you there.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

TPC Sawgrass is a 7,352 yard par 72 that is much more demanding of accuracy and shot-shaping than power and distance. Let’s dissect two of the main conditions storylines we’re seeing heading into this year’s event based on our boots-on-the-ground reporting.

• Firmness: The course is definitely playing firmer than normal. Approach shots are bouncing and the fairways are quick. If there’s little to no rainfall, holding greens and preventing fairway runout will be quite challenging. Rain is the big wild card here.

  • Stat this favors: Apex Height. Hit the ball higher, land it softer. Simple as that. The top 5 Apex Height players in the field: Aldrich Potgieter, Rickie Fowler, Keegan Bradley, Ben Griffin.

• Rough Length: The rough at TPC Sawgrass is already amongst the most penal on Tour, and it’s even longer this year. If you’re in the rough, you’re basically just hacking at the ball.

  • Stat this favors: OTT accuracy. We’re including Distance from Edge of Fairway in our model in lieu of Accuracy to reward those that can control their inevitable misses. Either way, you’re going to want to play from the fairway as much as possible here. Modeling out-of-the-rough stats doesn’t do much since you will rarely get a good shot out of it. The top 5 Dist from Edge of Fwy players in the field: Takumi Kanaya, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Joel Dahmen, Ryan Gerard.

Let’s continue diving into key stats and demands of the course as we dive into this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: TPC Sawgrass is a true accuracy > distance course with how severe the rough penalty is. It’s very easy to play your way out of position here and demands that players shape the ball both directions off the tee. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 25% weight this week, and Distance from Edge of Fairway at an additional 10% for an accuracy bump.

• APP: TPC Sawgrass is heavy on approach shots under 200 yards with ~12 per round on average. Playing from the fairway is a must as the rough will only provide a chance to hack at the ball. Soft landings will help on these firm greens as well. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 30% weight this week, plus an additional 10% weight on SG:APP from 125-200 yds in the fairway and tee box, and an additional 5% boost on Apex Height.

• ATG: Lie plays a big factor in short game here. Out of the rough, you won’t be able to spin the ball and will have a tough time keeping it close. With plenty of greenside bunkers, good bunker players will excel. Chipping out of the fairway is pretty standard business. The BTN Model includes SG: ATG at a 10% weight this week.

• Putting: There is almost no overseed left on the greens, so they’re playing like true Bermuda. Lag putting will play a factor this week as prox numbers drop due to the firmness of the greens. The 8-15’ range will play a key role as always in converting birdie looks and saving par when players get out of position. The BTN Model includes standard SG:PUTT on Bermuda at a 10% weight.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Si Woo Kim. The Korean prince has overtaken world no. 1 in our model this week with his elite driving and approach play. Plenty of big names topping the model this week alongside Si Woo including Scottie, Cam Young, a red-hot Collin Morikawa, Tommy Fleetwood, and Russell Henley. A few less-notable names that are popping include Austin Smotherman with some great recent form and Aaron Rai who’s accurate off the tee and a great iron player. We’ll see who reigns champ come Sunday evening.

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (3-4-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Adam Scott (-118) ✅ over Ben Griffin (-112) on DraftKings

We’re not wasting much time looking in the rearview mirror from last week. It’s The Players, one of the biggest events on the board, and we’re getting right back to work at TPC Sawgrass.

At first glance, this looks like a strong matchup between two pretty steady players. But once you peel back the layers a bit, Adam Scott starts to separate himself as the clear side for us in this spot. Ben Griffin had a fantastic 2025 season and deserves plenty of credit for that, but his recent form has cooled off. Over his last four tournaments and 16 rounds, he’s been pretty average. Meanwhile, Adam Scott has quietly put together a really solid season, especially when the competition gets tougher. A T11 at Bay Hill and a T4 at The Genesis tell us plenty. When the field gets stronger, Scott tends to raise his level, and this certainly qualifies.

Then you get to a place like TPC Sawgrass, where experience matters and trouble is waiting on nearly every hole. That’s another edge for Scott. This course has a way of exposing any weakness in your game, and right now Scott looks far better equipped to handle the test. The stat profile backs it up too. Scott ranks 30th in this field off the tee and 18th on approach, which is exactly the kind of combo you want around Sawgrass. Griffin, on the other hand, ranks a rough 93rd off the tee and 58th on approach. That’s a dangerous recipe on a course that punishes loose driving and shaky irons in a hurry.
Sawgrass usually turns into a survival test, and that should play right into Scott’s hands.

Give us the steadier ball-striking, the proven veteran, and the guy more likely to keep his ball dry and our ticket alive.

GS Luke’s Prop Picks 🎯 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account this year for all of his BTN free plays.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

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• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

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