The second major of the 2026 season has arrived with the PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club. Last seen on tour in 2018, where Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship, we’re back in Newtown Square, PA, for what will hopefully be another exciting major championship week. We’ve got Scottie trying to defend his title, and a lot of red-hot golfers trying to keep him from doing so. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Aronimink is a Donald Ross course that was redesigned by Gil Hanse in 2017. It’s a long par 70, measuring around 7300 yards and only two par 5s. This course definitely favors the bombers, as it will be a wedge fest for the long hitters this week. Carrying the ball over 300 yards allows you to separate yourself from the pack. There are a few beefy par holes (par 3s and a few long par 4s) to keep an eye on as well, once again favoring the long hitters.

They’re expecting some rain tonight, but if that doesn’t come, then we’re going to see some firm conditions going into the weekend. If that’s the case, those fairways will shrink, but they will be true for everyone. If players are missing fairways, length becomes even more pivotal.

From what we’re hearing on the ground, the front 9 is playing easy, and the last 5 holes will have some serious teeth. The rough has topped out and shouldn’t be super penal. On many holes, you’ll still be able to hit the green from the rough cause you’ll be hitting a wedge. But it really all comes down to pin positions… Every hole has a few hard locations and a few easy ones. So we’ll see big differences every day, even with similar weather conditions.

The BTN PGA Championship Model

Let’s take a look at some of the key stats that we’re factoring into our BTN Model this week at Aronimink:

• OTT: Bombers will love this place. If you can carry the ball 300+ out here, you’ll have an edge over the field. There are only 16 players in the field who average 300+ carry distance. We’re using both SG: OTT and Carry Distance in our model at a total weight of 25%

• APP: No secret, you’re going to have to hit some good approach shots to win a major championship. We’re using 3 variations of SG: APP in our model this week, starting with a standard SG: APP (per round, vs field) at 10%. Then we’re factoring in the long approach shots you’ll expect with a 25% weighting on SG: APP (per shot, vs. baseline) from 175-225 yards. We’ve got an additional 10% weighting on SG: APP (per shot, vs. baseline) with just Fairway & Rough filtered there to account for the shorter approach shots you’ll have that roll into the rough in those firm conditions.

• ATG: We’re not putting much weight on chipping here, only putting 5% on SG: ARG. We’re much more focused on hitting greens and making putts.

• Putting: We’ve got more emphasis on putting than normal this week. There are big slopes, and you’ll definitely see a lot more break than normal on those mid-range putts. We’ve filtered down to the Bent/Poa courses (74 courses to be specific), and we’re combining standard SG: Putt with SG: Putting from 4-10 ft for a combined 25% weight this week.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Rory McIlroy & Cameron Young, both scoring a perfect 10. The top of the leaderboard is stacked with a combination of elite ball strikers and long bombers, with Morikawa, Woodland, Ludvig, and others sitting in the top 10. You will notice that Scottie is NOT in our Top 10 this week… so we’ll have to see how he performs when he’s not at the top of the model projections. We’re in for an exciting major championship weekend!

Matchup of the Week (8-5-2) 🤼‍♂️ 

Alex Fitzpatrick (-118) ✅ over Jacob Bridgeman (-112) on DraftKings

The ticket cashed again last week, and we’re going to try to keep that train rolling right into the 108th PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club, just outside Philadelphia. Our play this week is a bit of a surprise underdog, at least to us, with Alex Fitzpatrick over Jacob Bridgeman.

Fitzpatrick may not be on the same heater as his older brother Matt, but little brother Fitzy has been pretty darn good himself lately. He has two top 10 finishes in signature events immediately following his first PGA TOUR victory, where he helped anchor the team alongside his brother at the Zurich Classic.

Bridgeman, meanwhile, came out of the gates hot this season but has definitely cooled off. He has no finish better than T33 at the Heritage over his last four events, and the stats have started to follow. Bridgeman has lost strokes in every major category in each of his last two starts, which is not exactly the profile we’re looking to back at a PGA Championship venue like Aronimink.

That’s not the case for Fitzpatrick, who has been solid across the board and especially sharp with the ball striking. He gained nearly 8 strokes ball striking at the Cadillac and followed it up by gaining 9.5 strokes last week at Quail Hollow. That kind of tee-to-green form travels, and it should matter plenty on a Donald Ross course where the greens are going to ask some serious questions.

The greens at Aronimink will be the star of the show, but to putt well on them, you actually have to find them first. We’re betting Fitzpatrick gives us the better chance to do that, and hopefully, little brother Fitzy can lead us right back to the payout window.

Feature Spotlight 🔦

This week’s Feature Spotlight: Player Putting by Surface Type on the Player Page.

We’ve started making some tweaks to our player and course pages, and we felt this was a missing piece of functionality on Bet The Number.

As we highlighted above, we care a lot about Bent/Poa putting performance, specifically this week. You’ve been able to get this information already from the model when you apply those filters, but now we’re giving you a graphic on every player’s profile for each surface on which they separate themselves.

Below is a graphic of one of the best putters on Tour, Sam Burns. Sam is popping in our model this week, primarily due to his well above average performance putting on Bent/Poa.

BTN Social Media 🚨 

We’ve brought on a new social media team member at Bet The Number, so keep an eye out for more social posts highlighting data from our platform!

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GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to his X for all of his free BTN plays!

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There’s nothing better than a major. Enjoy this week and good luck with your bets!

Ryan L.

Bet The Number