The final major of the 2025 season has arrived with the 153rd edition of The Open Championship at Royal Portrush Golf Club on the coast of Northern Ireland. This is only the third time Royal Portrush is hosting an Open Championship, last hosting the event in 2019 when Shane Lowry won his first and only major title. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Royal Portrush plays as a 7,381 yard par 71 with three par 5s and four par 3s. The course is a links-style course, but it’s built on dunes with plenty of rolling terrain which will make every shot unique and challenging. The Northern Irish elements will be on full display for this event with temps in the 60s (Fahrenheit - yes we’re US based), rain forecasted everyday, and the wind whipping in all directions. Should be an exciting test for the world’s best players.

Let’s take a look at some of the key stats that we expect to differentiate top performers this week.

Key Stats

• Distance from Edge of Fairway: Fairways are wide but demanding, and shot making is going to be essential off the tee with accuracy at a premium. Controlling the driver is a must for players looking to contend.

  • Who does this favor? Some big names in the top 5 in the Distance from Edge of Fairway stat: Corey Conners, Russell Henley, and Collin Morikawa. Some notable names toward the bottom of this stat category include Rory, both Hojgaard brothers, and Wyndham Clark.

• 170-230 yard Approach Shots: Players will be hitting plenty of long approaches, and those that can outperform in this stat category will be able to create some separation.

  • Who does this favor? Some of the top names from this distance include Phil Mickelson, Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama, Si Woo Kim, and Nicolai Hojgaard. Some big names slightly lower in the list include Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka, and Rory coming in at 13, 17, and 20 in the field respectively.

• Putts From 6-15 Feet: Converting putts in this distance bucket will be essential for players to capitalize on birdie looks and avoid costly bogeys.

  • Who does this favor? The best putters from 6-15’ include Patrick Reed, Brian Harman, and Sepp Straka. Matt Fitzpatrick, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Justin Thomas are also in the top 20 in the field from this distance. Some notably low-ranking players in this stat category include Sungjae Im, Dustin Johnson, and Ludvig Aberg.

The BTN Open Championship Model

Let’s take a look at each strokes gained category as we dive into the BTN Open Championship 2025 model:

• OTT: Length will be helpful off the tee, but accuracy is essential to get yourself into a good position for a decent approach. The rough is pretty patchy and bunkers should definitely be avoided. The BTN Model features standard SG: OTT at a 10% weight, and an additional 10% weight on Distance from edge of Fairway to reward accuracy.

• APP: As mentioned in the key stats, longer shots have a lot of value here. Even shorter shots into the wind will be quite demanding. Look for approach play to be a separator for players that can give themselves looks and stay out of trouble. The BTN Model features standard SG: APP at a 20% weight, and an additional 20% weight on SG: APP from 170-230 yds in the fairway.

• ATG: This is a tough course to scramble from. Players will be hitting all different types of shots and putts from off the green and will need to be creative to save pars. The BTN Model features standard SG: ATG at 10% weight and Scrambling at an additional 10% weight.

• Putting: Lag putts and putts from 6-15’ will tell the story on these greens. Good lag putting will help players avoid costly 3-putts, but being able to convert those 6-15’ putts will be the true difference maker. The BTN Model features SG: PUTT from 6-15’ at a 20% weight.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler, scoring a perfect 10. Feels like groundhogs day every weekend with Scottie. Some other big names in the BTN Top 10 include: Sepp Straka, Ben Griffin, Russell Henley, Patrick Reed, Tommy Fleetwood, Si Woo, Captain Keegan, and Hideki. Loads of talent at the top of our model for this event.

Matchup of the Week (7-9-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Sepp Straka (+110) ✅ over Collin Morikawa (-140) on DraftKings

Sometimes a matchup just screams, “It’s a trap.” And if you’re hearing that in Admiral Ackbar’s voice, we get it — this one might look like a setup. Sepp Straka at plus money against a former Open champ? Feels a little too good. But we’re buying it.

Morikawa might carry the bigger name and the major resume, but right now, he’s simply not the better player. Straka is locked in — gaining strokes across the board and flashing elite iron play that profiles perfectly for Royal Portrush. The BTN Matchup Tool backs it up, giving Straka the nod in recent form and key stats. Morikawa, meanwhile, has been running cold with the putter and middling across the board. Just nothing that jumps out.

It might feel like a trap, but the numbers say otherwise. We’re trusting the model and riding with Sepp to get it done.

Feature Spotlight 🔦

This week’s Feature Spotlight: introducing the first iteration of Bet The Number Mobile. One of the most commonly requested features from you has been in the works for quite a while. We have totally redesigned the custom model and live stats tracking features when viewed from mobile devices, and the rest of the app has been refactored to work seamlessly on mobile screens.

This is just our first version of mobile enhancements, and we’re hard at work continuing to iterate on the mobile experience. We’re currently working on building out the full display of custom model columns on mobile and the ability to expand player stats during live stats tracking, and have plenty more on the horizon. As always, we’d love to hear from you with suggestions on how to make BTN Mobile even better.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Keep an eye out for his Open Championship picks and analysis on Wednesday, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

There’s nothing better than a major. Enjoy this week and good luck with your bets!

Ben K.

Bet The Number