The PGA Tour takes on the Memorial Tournament this week at Jack’s place: Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. This is a signature event with a 72 player field including the large majority of the top players in the OWGR (with one notable omission: Rory). Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Muirfield Village is a challenging par 72 measuring 7569 yards. Compared to the average Tour course, this one sees lower GIR rates, lower scrambling rates, less birdies per round, and more bogeys per round. The past two winners (Scottie in 2024 and Hovland in 2023) both shot single digits under par, and we expect that trend to continue this year. Thursday will likely be the best scoring day where someone might jump out to 6 or 7 under, but some wind and rain will roll in Friday including a Northwestern wind which looks to remain over the weekend and yield challenging scoring conditions at this already difficult track.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Muirfield has narrow fairways and thick, penal rough which makes accuracy especially important for this event. There isn’t a strong length advantage here either as many of the longer hitters will be taking less than driver on a lot of the holes. Look for accuracy over distance when modeling OTT.

• APP: Approach shots are often coming from 150+ yards out at Jack’s place, especially as longer hitters are laying back on several tee shots. The rough is especially penal here too - this might be the hardest course on Tour to hit greens from the rough. The BTN Model features 150-225 yards as the differentiating distance bucket this week and requires great approach play for players to rise to the top. Tidbit for Birdie or Better bettors - it’s going to be tough for players to reach the par 5s in two this weekend with the NW wind coming in.

• ATG: Chipping is really tough at this course as you really can’t strategically play your way into safe spots around the greens. Players that miss greens are going to need to get lucky and are going to have a hard time getting up and down. The BTN Model features Bogey Avoidance this week to reward those that are elite at getting up and down from tough positions.

• Putting: Muirfield has tough Bent/Poa greens that are playing like pure Bent right now. The greens are fairly firm, very fast, and currently in great condition. When modeling for this event, you may want to include 3-putt avoidance as it’s going to be tough to hit the ball close to these pins.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. Maybe some day he’ll drop out of the number 1 spot. Not this week.

Matchup of the Week (4-5-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

J.T. Poston (+100) ✅ over JJ Spaun (-125) on DraftKings

This is a sneaky-good matchup between two guys in solid form, but we’re siding with J.T. Poston at even money thanks to a few subtle but important edges. Poston’s played The Memorial five straight years, making the cut in four and cracking the top 40 three times, so he knows his way around Muirfield Village. Spaun, on the other hand, has just one start here in the last five years, which makes him more of an unknown on this demanding track.
Beyond course familiarity, Poston’s putter is absolutely on fire as he’s gained over 3.5 strokes on the greens in four consecutive events. That kind of confidence with the flat stick is no small thing on Jack’s slick, undulating greens. The BTN Matchup Tool leans Poston’s way, and when the numbers line up with the vibes, we’re happy to back the Mailman to deliver a fat envelope full of units this week

Feature Spotlight 🔦 

This week’s Feature Spotlight: The Recent Form and Course History toggles on the Custom Model and Tournament pages. It can be easy to get lost in all the data when modeling for these tournaments and forget about two important factors to predict success: how well a player has been playing, and whether they’ve shown success on this course in the past - especially on a difficult track like Muirfield village.

Below we’re looking at our matchup of the week between J.T. Poston and J.J. Spaun in the Custom Model. While Spaun is modeling better with the stats highlighted for this tournament, it’s helpful to get the additional context of the players’ recent form and course history. Both players are in strong form right now, with a slight edge to the Postman in recent events. Course History shows the big discrepancy though - with J.T. making the cut 4 years straight at The Memorial while J.J. has only played once in 2023. These factors help round out the full picture of a player’s stats, form, and course familiarity when choosing your bets.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his Memorial Tournament picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

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Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number