The PGA Tour travels across the pond this week to the Genesis Scottish Open. This event features a stacked field with most of the world’s top players looking to enjoy an event on a true links-style course before taking on the final major of the season in The Open Championship next week. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

The Renaissance Club is a challenging par 70 at 7,237 yards, including three par 5s and five par 3s. The course has a lower than average fairway rate given the links-style layout and features 0.3 less birdies and 0.3 more bogeys per round than the Tour average. The Scottish elements always have something in store for tournament golf, and this weekend is no exception; while it looks like there’s no rain in the forecast, players will face sustained double digit winds pretty much the entire time they’re playing.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Conditions are firm and the ball is rolling out a long way. Players that can avoid fairway bunkers will have an advantage here. Given the links style of the course, there isn’t much of a rough penalty as tee shots roll out off the fairways. The BTN model uses SG:OTT per round at a 20% weight this week.

• APP: Players will be hitting longer than average shots, especially with the windy conditions throughout the tournament. The greens are tricky so strong approach play will help players get some birdie looks and minimize 3-putts. The BTN Model uses standard SG:APP at a 20% weight this week, PLUS another 20% weight on SG:APP from 175-225 yards from the fairway to favor players that excel with longer approach shots.

• ATG: The main storyline with around-the-green play here is that players will be hitting plenty of longer fairway chips. The BTN model uses SG:ATG from 20+ yards out in the fairway at a 10% weight.

• Putting: Lag putting, lag putting, lag putting. Players will be hitting plenty of long putts and will need to nestle them up close for a comfortable par. Even short putts are tricky to hole, so expect some 3-putting. The BTN model features both 3-putt avoidance at 20% weight and SG:Putt from 4’-8’ at 10% weight to reward players that can convert their putts on these tricky greens.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. Seems to always be the case. Some other interesting names have popped into the top 5 of the BTN Model this week though, including Harry Hall, Harris English, and Jake Knapp. Can any of these underdogs break through?

Matchup of the Week (6-9-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Rasmus Neergard-Petersen (-110) ✅ over Rasmus Hojgaard (-110) on DraftKings

It’s time for the Matchup of the Week to get back on track. This week we’re eyeing up the battle of the Rasmuses at the Genesis Scottish Open — a pick'em between two rising Danish stars. We’re backing the one who’s doing more than just showing up with a familiar last name.

Neergaard-Petersen may not have the PGA Tour resume of Hojgaard yet, but his current form and ball-striking numbers are hard to ignore. He checks nearly every box in our BTN Matchup Tool and stands out in two key areas: 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 2nd in Strokes Gained: Approach. That combination sets up beautifully at The Renaissance Club, where windy conditions and firm turf put a premium on precision and control.

Hojgaard has the pedigree, but RNP has the profile we want this week — trending game, elite iron play, and undervalued upside. Only one Rasmus is dialed in right now — and we’re betting on the one with the extra last name.

Feature Spotlight 🔦 

This week’s Feature Spotlight: Custom Model Stats. When you’re building your custom model each week, BTN offers 100+ stats for you to include. These stats are grouped by strokes gained category for easier selection and allow you to slice and dice the data any way you please when building your model. Beyond modeling, this plethora of stats also comes in handy for prop bettors and live bettors looking to find pricing mistakes by the books on bets like hole scores, GIRs, closest to the pin, and much more.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his Genesis Scottish Open picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

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Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number