The signature events keep rolling this week with the Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club. We missed this awesome course last year as the Genesis was moved to Torrey Pines due to damage from the LA wildfires, and we’re glad to be back at Riv. But first, a big feature announcement.

Introducing: The Hole Hangout ⛳️ 

We had so much fun with hole 16 at the Waste Management that we decided to make the hole tracker into a full-fledged feature - every hole, every course, every week. The Hole Hangout contains:

1. Live Stats:

   1. Live overall hole stats including total birdies, pars, bogeys, scoring, GIRs, and Fairways (par 4s and 5s) or Prox (par 3s)

   2. A live group tracker to see when each group is expected to play the hole, including live and historical stats for each player

2. Historical Stats:

   1. Hole averages for birdies, pars, bogeys, GIRs, and Fwys/Prox

   2. Historical hole results for every round played at the course in our database

3. Pin Placement Analysis (for signature holes only as of now): filters and analysis showing how different pins affect scoring and results. Hole 16 at the WMPO, hole 10 this week (the drivable par 4), #17 at Sawgrass, etc.

Hole props currently offer some of the largest edges available at major books like Draftkings. The Hole Hangout is here to let you capitalize on them.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Riviera Country Club is a relatively long par 71 coming in at 7,383 yards. Looking at the BTN Course Insights feature, we see more red than green. Riviera plays materially harder in terms of fairway hit rate, greens in reg, approach proximity, putting from 5-15’, and 3-putt percentage beyond 25’. The two areas of relief we can spot are easier scrambling and better than average par 5 scoring.

Conditions will be a factor this week. The course is really soft right now from lots of rain, and tomorrow is looking cold, windy, and rainy which will make for difficult scoring conditions. The rest of the event looks to be much more mild and could play easier as greens stay receptive.

Let’s take a look at this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: Especially with wet conditions where balls won’t be running out, length off the tee goes a long way with a bomber’s paradise score of 6.1/10 The rough penalty is not so bad, so distance is the premium to weight in your models this week. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 20% weight this week, plus an additional 20% weight on Carry Distance due to the wet conditions.

• APP: The 150-200 yard range is vital at Riviera. Wedges will be important as well to control spin, especially for shorter hitters that won’t be reaching the par 5s in two. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 10% weight, plus an additional 15% weight on SG:APP from 100-150 yards from the fairway/tee.

• ATG: The rough is relatively short but might become unpredictable by the weekend. The soft greens will make it easier to control chips and get up and down, especially considering Riviera is already an easier-than-average scrambling course. With lower GIR rates here, short game is a factor to consider in models this week. The BTN Model includes standard SG: ATG at a 10% weight this week.

• Putting: Even with the weather, the greens at Riviera are still pretty quick. Lag putts will be a factor if players are missing the right sections of the greens, making the 4-12’ range important both for bogey avoidance and birdie conversion. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT from 4-12’ on Poa at a 10% weight.

• Bogey Avoidance: It’s easy to get out of position at Riviera and missing in the wrong places will drastically increase bogey changes. Players that are able to manage the course well, get up and down, and avoid bogeys will be in great shape. The BTN Model includes Bogey Avoidance at a 15% weight this week.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. Scottie is the favorite every week, so let’s shed some light on another guy in our top 10. The one that stands out to me is Patrick Cantlay. Cantlay has pretty strong course history at Riviera and comes in at #7 this week with some sneaky T15s at the AT&T and AmEx, though he did MC at the Farmers.

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (2-2-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Jacob Bridgeman (-116) ✅ over Max Homa (-114) on DraftKings

We’ve evened up the record thanks to an easy win by Tommy Fleetwood in last week’s Matchup of the Week. Now let’s keep it rolling at the Genesis Invitational. We’re headed to Riviera Country Club, a classic track with a loaded signature-event field.

And speaking of staying hot, Jacob Bridgeman might not be a household name yet, but the guy has been on a heater. He’s opened the year with four top-20 finishes, and hasn’t done worse than T18 in that stretch. The profile checks out too: the putter has been strong, and the ball striking has held steady enough to keep him in the mix every week.

On the other side, Max Homa is a former champion here, but his recent form has been all over the place—especially off the tee and around the greens, two areas you can’t afford to be loose at Riviera. With the matchup tool firmly backing Bridgeman, we’ll lay the small number and look to keep this momentum going—because in Hollywood, you ride the hot hand until the credits roll.

GS Luke’s Prop Picks 🎯 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account this year for all of his BTN free plays.

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Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number