The playoffs are upon us. The top 70 players on the PGA Tour (minus Rory) are teeing it up this week at TPC Southwind in an effort to place in the top 50 of FedEx Cup standings to advance to the BMW Championship next weekend. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

An interesting storyline to track this week is that TPC Southwind has undergone quite a few renovations in preparation for this year’s event. Much of the course has been re-grassed, including many fairways, aprons around the greens, and the greens themselves. The new greens are quite firm, the rough is thicker than in years past, and chipping will be a bit easier without grainy Bermuda lies. Some bunkers have been redone as well, including both fairway and green bunkers, and they look to be a bit less penal than before. Overall, the course is in great shape, and the renovations have been received well. We might see some low scores each day in the -6 to -7 range, but we’re targeting -12 to -15 for a winning score this weekend.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Given the Bermuda rough is a bit thicker than usual, accuracy will play at more of a premium in this year’s event. Long hitters tend to pull their drivers out of the bag a bit less than average at TPC Southwind as well which is evident by the course being a 2.6/10 on the bomber’s paradise scale. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 20% weight, and Distance from Edge of Fairway at a 10% weight to reward accuracy.

• APP: This has always been an approach player’s course; many of the past winners and top performers were great iron players. There are plenty of middle-of-the bag shots from 120-190 here, and some tucked pin locations will be difficult to reach. More advanced modelers could include SG:APP out of Bermuda rough as a differentiating statistic given the extra length on the rough this year. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 25% weight this week, and SG:APP from 120-190 yards at an additional 20% weight.

• ATG: The grass around the greens is all Zoysia now, so players won’t be facing dicey, grainy Bermuda lies like they used to here. However, the greens are very firm for chipping, so ATG play won’t be too much easier than years past. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ATG at a 10% weight this week.

• Putting: The Bermuda greens are in perfect condition right now. They aren’t very grainy like typical Bermuda at this point though, so we don’t think it’s necessary to model specifically on Bermuda greens. The greens are relatively flat so we don’t expect many 3-putts, though some tucked pins may be hard to reach on approach shots. Guys will have plenty of birdie looks from 8-15 feet and will need to convert these to jump ahead in the leaderboard. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT from 8-15’ to reward those that can sink their birdie looks.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. If he plays, he’s the favorite. This is the way. The remainder of the BTN Model top 5 is quite interesting though, with #3 ranked Sepp Straka coming in at #3 in our model, and the remaining three coming from much higher in FedEx rankings.

Matchup of the Week (10-9-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Russell Henley (-120) ✅ over Justin Thomas (-105) on DraftKings

We’re heading into the playoffs at the FedEx St. Jude Classic in the green for the season, and we’re backing the hot hand in Russell Henley to keep it rolling at TPC Southwind. Henley lands inside the top 10 of our proprietary BTN Model this week, while JT sits back at 44th — a clear signal when it comes to course-fit and key stat performance. The Matchup Tool also favors Henley, with noticeable separation in SG: Approach and Scrambling over the last 24 rounds, which are both critical at Southwind where precision is everything. Another underrated edge? Accuracy off the tee. Henley ranks much better in our “Distance from Edge of Fairway” metric, a sneaky stat that tends to matter more on tighter layouts like this one where big misses can derail a round. We’ll trust the model and the stat profile to carry Henley through the Memphis heat and into the win column.

Feature Spotlight 🔦 

This week’s Feature Spotlight: The Past Top Performers card on the Course page. We’ve added a few enhancements to this card recently, including the average stat profile for certain finishing positions (ARG not much of a factor here?), and the scores of each player in those finishing positions. Context is everything when shaping up bets each week, and having the ability to see what stat profiles and scoring conditions were successful in years past at a given course are typically great indicators of who might see success in the future there.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his FedEx St. Jude Championship picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

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Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number