The season is finally starting to heat up with the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in San Diego. This event is played across both the South Course and the North Course at Torrey Pines over the first two rounds before transitioning to the South Course exclusively over the weekend. Only the South Course has ShotLink data, which means all stroke-level data on the Course page of BTN is for the South Course exclusively. However, we do have Round Prop and Hole Prop data for both courses available - both historical and live as play begins.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

We will primarily discuss the South Course here since the players that make the weekend will be playing three rounds here. A quick note on the North Course though: it plays quite a bit easier than the South Course with a historical scoring average of 70.61 compared to the South Course’s 72.79. Keep this in mind when betting on round props!

As for the South Course, it’s one of the toughest tracks on the PGA Tour coming in at a whopping 7,765 yards for the par 72. Looking at the BTN Course Insights feature, we see a sea of red as this course plays materially harder than other Tour Courses in almost every metric we are tracking. The rough is a bit thinner than usual this year, but it is still long and will be penal like always. The one saving grace for this week is mild conditions which won’t be actively working against players like the howling wind from last year.

Let’s take a look at this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: Ball striking is the main storyline at Torrey Pines as Off the Tee and Approach play will dictate a lot of the outcome here. For OTT, the Course Breakdown page initially shows a Bomber’s Paradise of 4.4, but this is dragged down significantly by last year’s windy tournament. Filtering from 2021 - 2024, the Bomber’s Paradise reads a 6.5 which is much more appropriate as carry distance will help quite a bit with the length of this course. Accuracy helps too though as the rough is penal. The BTN Model includes Carry Distance at 15% weight this week, and SG: Ball Striking at an additional 25%.

• APP: Look for lots of long irons as players are hitting ~12 shots per round over 175 yards on approach. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP from 175 - 275 yards at a 10% weight which adds onto the 25% SG: Ball Striking mentioned previously.

• ATG: It is tough to scramble at Torrey Pines, and this is a differentiator given lower than average GIR rates. The BTN Model includes Scrambling at a 20% weight this week.

• Putting: The Poa greens should firm up by the weekend and roll smoother than the past. We’re much more focused on bogey avoidance this week than making birdies. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT from 4-12’ on Poa at a 5% weight, Bogey Avoidance at a 15% weight, and 3-putt avoidance at an additional 10% weight.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Chris Gotterup. Lots of interesting names at the top of the BTN Model though as plenty of big names are competing this week (welcome back Brooks).

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (0-2-0) 🤼‍♂️ 

Sam Stevens (-114) ✅ over Will Zalatoris (-116) on DraftKings

The lords of gambling have not been kind to us to start the year, so maybe it’s time to switch up the approach and roll with the slight underdog instead of chasing the favorite.
Sam Stevens has once again been playing some excellent golf to open the West Coast swing. He eased into the season with a T31 at the Sony Open, then backed it up with a T6 last week at The American Express. Will Zalatoris also had a solid showing at The American Express with a T18 in his first PGA TOUR start after missing most of last year due to injury, which is genuinely encouraging.

But Torrey Pines is a different animal. It’s a much tougher test, and right now I’m going to trust the steadier, more reliable game that Stevens is bringing to the table. Both guys have some decent history here, but I need to see a little more from Willy Z, especially with the putter, before I’m willing to buy in on Poa Annua greens that can turn even confident strokes into a crime scene. The BTN Matchup tool leans Stevens, and so does the overall model.

So we’re trusting the process this week. And if the gambling gods are listening, we’re not asking for much, just one little W to get this season off the mat.

New BTN Functionality ⭐️ 

GROUPINGS ARE HERE!! We have now pulled groupings into BTN and integrated them directly into several key modules. If you love betting 2-balls and 3-balls, your life just got way easier.

• Matchups Page: Groupings in the Matchups page are now live - no longer will you have to manually enter every 2-ball and 3-ball to find your edge. Compare each grouping on a historical and live basis to line up your 2- and 3-ball picks.

• Custom Model: Groupings are now available on the Custom Model as well, plus a new AM/PM filter for those that like to eye up wave split advantages. Compare each grouping easily by sorting on the TT/Grp column, and filter by wave split when conditions call for it using the new AM/PM filter.

• Tournament Page: Upcoming and live tournaments will now feature tee times and groupings as well. Track your 2-balls and 3-balls in real time by sorting on the TT/Grp column.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account this year for all of his BTN free plays.

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• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number