Hello golf bettors! We hope you were tailing some of our action at the BTN Hole Hangout last weekend because we were red hot with the hole props at Riviera. Hole props are far and away the best value the books are offering on golf betting right now, and we built the Hole Hangout to specifically target those lines. We’ll be back at it this weekend and hope you follow along on our X and the Tour Junkies Discord. If you’re not a BTN member yet, sign up for a free trial today and you’ll get full access to the Hole Hangout along with the rest of BTN for a full 7 days.

Onto the new week, the first leg of the PGA Tour’s Florida swing is here with the Cognizant Classic at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens. After two back-to-back signature events, and with the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players ahead, most of the Tour’s top players are taking this week off leaving us a slightly weaker field. That said, there’s still plenty of opportunity to hit some bets and enjoy some water balls at the notorious Bear Trap.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

PGA National is a water-heavy par 71 coming in at 7,223 yards. Looking at the BTN Course Insights feature, we see quite a bit of green with PGA National boasting a higher GIR rate, less bogeys per round, easier par 5 scoring, and easier putting than Tour average. The main challenge this course presents is the bountiful water hazards, especially throughout the Bear Trap which is holes 15-17 and presents a nice challenge for players coming down the stretch.

As for conditions, the rough is longer and healthier than the last few years which may increase the typically low rough penalty. The greens are a bit firmer too which could lower GIR rates and will likely keep us from a 59-watch again this year.

Let’s take a look at this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: PGA National is not a driver-heavy course as players are only pulling the big stick out 10 times per round on average. With an average fairway hit rate and low rough penalty (as long as you’re avoiding water), there’s not much to note on the OTT front. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 10% weight this week.

• APP: The course is heavy from 126-175 yards on approach with almost 8 shots per round in this range. With the greens being firm, they will be more difficult than usual to hold and will put a premium on strong approach play. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 35% weight this week.

• ATG: As we’ve mentioned, we expect the GIR rate to drop a bit this week with the firm greens, especially if the wind starts blowing. Chipping will be at a premium for players to get up and down from off the greens. The BTN Model includes SG: ATG on Bermuda at a 25% weight this week.

• Putting: The greens are Bermuda at PGA National which is a change from the west coast courses we’ve been seeing so far. We’re putting a premium on 4-12’ putts this week both to convert birdies and save pars when scrambling. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT from 4-12’ at a 10% weight.

• Par 3 Scoring: With the two par 3s on the front nine playing over 200 yards, and the two on the back being part of the Bear Trap, par 3 play can make or break a round at PGA National. Because of this, we’ve included Par 3 scoring in our model this week at a 20% weight to reward those that are able to navigate these tricky holes.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Max Homa. Homa just barely edges out the favorite Ryan Gerard to be #1 in the model with excellent approach and around the green play and great par 3 scoring. Is it time for Max to re-enter the winner’s circle?

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (3-2-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Haotong Li (-120) ✅ over Brooks Koepka (-110) on DraftKings

It might be safe to say we are on fire, just like BTN is right now, as we coasted to an easy victory last week with Jacob Bridgeman over Max Homa. Oh, and what else did Bridgeman do? He won the whole dang tournament. Extra credit, gold star, and if you sprinkled the outright, take a victory lap.

Now we turn our focus to the East Coast for the first event of the Florida Swing at the Cognizant Classic at PGA National. The field may not be loaded, but the goal stays the same. Keep stacking wins with the Matchup Play of the Week.

This week it is Haotong Li over Brooks Koepka. Yes, Koepka is a headline name and will have plenty of people clicking his side, but the form is still a little iffy in his third start back on Tour post LIV. Right now the consistency just is not there. Meanwhile, both the BTN Matchup Tool and our PGA National specific BTN Model lean strongly toward Li. He is simply bringing the steadier, more reliable profile for this course.

And at PGA National, steady is the whole point. One shaky stretch and you are feeding the Bear Trap, and those three holes do not care what your name is. Give us Li to keep it in play, survive the claws, and win this matchup clean.

GS Luke’s Prop Picks 🎯 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account this year for all of his BTN free plays.

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If you’re looking for me, I’ll be at the brand new BTN Hole Hangout all weekend looking to snipe some hole props. Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number