The PGA Tour takes on the Charles Schwab Challenge this week at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. After a runaway victory at the PGA Championship last week, world no. 1 Scottie Scheffler tees it up again in his home state and will be competing against a fairly strong field for a non-signature event. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

As a difficult par 70 with only two par 5s and tough par 3s, Colonial is going to play pretty tough this week. The course is already pretty firm and will continue to firm up during play, and the weather forecast is calling for windy conditions. Colonial has small greens to begin with, and with the forecasted wind, we’ll likely see low GIR counts which puts scrambling at a premium. We expect 8-10 under to be a contending score, and 12-14 likely wins the tournament.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: With narrow fairways, plenty of trees, and lots of doglegs, accuracy comes at a premium over distance at Colonial. The course is only a 3.5/10 on the bomber’s paradise scale and has a strong rough penalty. We expect most of the scoring to come around the greens though, and just have standard SG:OTT in the BTN Model.

• APP: The large majority of approach shots at Colonial come from the 125-200 yard bucket which is the featured distance range in this week’s BTN Model. As mentioned earlier, the course has a strong rough penalty and features small greens which make approach play difficult.

• ATG: Chipping will separate top performers this weekend. With a low GIR rate and plenty of tough second shots for those missing fairways, getting up and down will be essential to saving pars. In the BTN Model, SG:ATG is the highest weighted of any event in weeks, and we’ve also added Scrambling as a key stat to the model.

• Putting: Colonial might have the purest bent grass greens on Tour. Players that putt well on bent will find themselves contending during this tournament, and the BTN Model has SG:Putt filtered to bent grass courses.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. Anyone surprised? Tough to bet against world no. 1, in peak form, AND in his own backyard.

Matchup of the Week (4-4-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Ryan Gerard (-105) ✅ over Ben Griffin (-120) on DraftKings

This matchup features two players in solid form, both striking their irons well in recent starts—but we’re locking in Ryan Gerard at near even money thanks to a few key stats. Over the last 12 rounds, Gerard ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green while Griffin has been strictly average at 77th in the field. While Griffin has strong SG:Putt numbers on bent greens, Gerard actually has slightly better putting numbers overall in recent history and has been putting well. With the BTN Model heavily weighting short game this week, we like Gerard’s performance in these key stats to carry us to the cash-out window.

Feature Spotlight 🔦 

This week’s Feature Spotlight: The Around the Green card on the Player page. When courses like Colonial call for elite around the green play, we suggest referencing this card for the players you’re looking to bet. You can see summary stats down the left side including overall SG: ARG, sand saves, and scrambling, and on the right side are detailed strokes gained numbers broken down by distance and lie.

We’re looking at Scottie Scheffler’s card below. He’s got great ARG numbers including positive SG: ARG, sand saves 10% higher than Tour average, and scrambling 15% higher than Tour average. He’s gaining strokes from almost every distance and lie combination except short bunker shots and long rough shots. My advice - don’t bet on Scottie bogeys.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his Charles Schwab Challenge picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

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Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number