After an exciting playoff finish in Memphis, the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup rankings have moved on to the BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, MD. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

The BMW Championship was played at Caves Valley back in 2021, where Patrick Cantlay won in a playoff against Bryson DeChambeau. The course played pretty easy in 2021, but has been totally redone since then, so the data from the last event should come with an asterisk. The course par has been updated from 72 to 70 as two of the par 5s were shortened a bit and converted into par 4s, but the course remains quite long, coming in at a 7601-yard par 70. The greens have been totally redone and are more severe and more firm than they were last go-round. The fairways have been narrowed as well, and fairway bunkers will be in play for all players, even the long hitters. We definitely don’t buy into the birdie-fest narrative for this event - we might see a winner at 12- to 15-under, but don’t expect a ton of guys posting super low scores.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Players will be hitting driver on almost every par 4 and 5 here. The fairways have been narrowed a bit, but the rough is pretty short and won’t be causing major trouble. Distance is the name of the game this week as longer hitters will have an advantage tackling the length of the course. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 20% weight, and Carry Distance with an additional 5% sprinkle to reward long hitters.

• APP: Long irons will be in the spotlight at this event due to the length of the course. Last time they played at Caves Valley, players were averaging 9 approach shots per round over 175 yards, including a few long par 3s. The green complexes are quite big and sectioned, so 3-putts are in play for inaccurate approach shots. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 20% weight this week, and SG:APP from 150-220 yards from the tee/fairway at an additional 20% weight.

• ATG: Short game is not crazy hard here, but players will be facing some up-and-over chips from the rough around the greens. Though players will be hitting plenty of long irons into firm greens, the size of the green complexes mitigates some of this danger. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ATG at a 10% weight this week.

• Putting: The large greens will bring 3-putts into play for those that want to model 3-putt avoidance. Players will definitely have their share of birdie looks though, so the 10-15’ range will be important to get some circles on the scorecard. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT from 5-15’ to capture both testers for par and birdie looks.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. The King continues his reign. Some other interesting names have snuck into the top 10 this week though, including the likes of Chris Gotterup and Cam Young. The course sets up great for players like these two who hit the ball a mile and have had confidence with their putters recently.

Matchup of the Week (11-9-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Rickie Fowler (-120) ✅ over Shane Lowry (-105) on DraftKings

Listen, folks — we’re calling it. The heater is on, and we’re not about to step off. This week, we’re riding Rickie Fowler to keep the streak alive over Shane Lowry at Cave’s Valley. The BTN Matchup Tool backs us up, with Fowler ahead or tied in 9 of 11 key stat categories. They’re neck-and-neck in our overall tournament model, but Rickie’s recent edge off the tee could be the deciding factor on this track. Combine that with Fowler’s sharper form compared to Lowry’s up-and-down play, and the path looks clear. We’re trusting the numbers, the momentum, and a little of that old Rickie Fowler swagger to carry us through. Punch the ticket — Rickie gets it done.

Feature Spotlight 🔦 

This week’s Feature Spotlight: The Driving card on the Player page. When courses like Caves Valley call for bombers, we come here to see how players are driving the ball. Cam Young has been in great form recently with both distance and accuracy, and his driving numbers back up his OTT prowess.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his BMW Championship picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

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Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number