The first signature event of the 2026 PGA Tour schedule has arrived with the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Betting note: the first two days are played on two courses in Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill before moving to Pebble Beach exclusively for rounds three and four. In Bet The Number, our course page features Pebble exclusively while our Round Prop and Hole Prop pages have data available on both courses.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

A few quick notes on Spyglass Hill before we focus on Pebble. Spyglass is a 7,071 yard par 72 and more of a true ball-striker’s course than Pebble. You can’t spray it off the tee there and need to manage your game well. The course tends to play about half a shot harder than Pebble overall.

Pebble Beach on the other hand is a relatively short par 72 coming in 6,989 yards. Pebble offers a lot of birdie opportunities and is less punishing off the tee as long as you’re avoiding the ocean. As for stats that stick out at Pebble looking at the BTN Course Insights tool, we can see a few. On the “easier” side, Pebble has a higher fairway hit rate, lower scoring, more birdies per round, closer prox, and better 3-putt avoidance than the average Tour course. On the “harder” side, we just see putting from 5-15ft at a lower conversion rate.

A note on conditions this week since Pebble is largely at the mercy of the elements. We’ve seen some of the crazy wind for practice rounds, but the actual tournament days are looking more mild (with the exception of Sunday). The course will be playing pretty soft from a lot of rain and should be receptive. Sunday looks very rainy and windy as of now so it’s worth keeping an eye on the forecast as the weekend gets closer.

Let’s take a look at this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: With a very low rough penalty and being a relatively short course, Pebble is not very demanding off the tee. Players are only hitting driver 11 times on average. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 15% weight this week, plus an additional 5% weight on Carry Distance due to the wet conditions.

• APP: Some call Pebble a barbell approach course since it’s heavier on long irons and short irons while not asking much from the middle of the bag. The greens are fairly small but we see stable GIR rates and good prox numbers here. The BTN Model includes SG:APP at a 20% weight from 100-150 yards from the fairway/tee, plus an additional 20% weight on SG:APP from 200-250 yards from the fairway/tee.

• ATG: Around the green won’t be too much of a factor until maybe Sunday if conditions get crazy. The BTN Model includes standard SG: ATG at a 5% weight this week.

• Putting: We’re looking at relatively small west coast Poa greens at Pebble. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT on similar Poa courses at a 15% weight.

• Par 5s: The par 5s offer great opportunities for scores under par, so we’ve included Par 5 scoring at a 10% weight in our model this week.

• Bogey Avoidance: Last but not least, we have Bogey Avoidance at a 10% weight this week. This is our ode to Spyglass as it presents more bogey risk than Pebble which players will naturally want to avoid on their round at Spy.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. Scottie demonstrated this past weekend that he can be ten shots off the lead after round 1 and still surge into contention on Sunday. Should be fun to watch the best players compete in the first signature event of the year this week.

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (1-2-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Tommy Fleetwood (-122) ✅ over Cam Young (-108) on DraftKings

Every so often in sports wagering, and golf especially, you’ve got to have a very short-term memory and put things behind you quickly. Like, for instance, last week Cam Young had an 8-shot lead over Xander Schauffele in our matchup play of the week. Then they tied. And that really ticked us off.

So we should just let bygones be bygones and forget about it, right? Pfft. No way.
We’re taking all that anger and going the complete opposite direction this week, with Tommy Fleetwood to take down Cam Young at Pebble Beach.

Tommy Lad definitely turned a corner late last year, culminating in a breakthrough PGA TOUR win at the Tour Championship. He’s not off to the best start by his standards this season overseas, but we’re betting he gets things turned around on a course like Pebble Beach that’s suited for his game. The BTN Matchup Tool certainly agrees, too, favoring Fleetwood over Young in the majority of stat categories. Tommy Lad also ranks 6th in the BTN Custom Model this week, compared to Cam Young at 42nd.

There’s no cut, so it’s going to be a four-day sweat, but we’re banking on Tommy to have those locks flowing in the wind and to handle business against Cam this week at Pebble.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account this year for all of his BTN free plays.

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Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number