Hello golf bettors! The Florida swing continues this week with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill in Orlando. As a signature event, the best players on Tour are all teeing it up with a limited 72 player field. But before we dive into the numbers, we want to introduce a feature we’re really excited about: 2-balls and 3-balls in the Custom Model.

Introducing: Custom Model Matchups 👥 

If you love betting 2-balls and 3-balls, we’ve brought matchup analysis directly into the custom model for you. Once tee times are loaded both leading up to the event and subsequently in each round, we’ve added a toggle that lets you flip from the full Field view to a Groupings view. Now you can directly analyze 2-balls and 3-balls within the context of the BTN Model or your own personal Custom Model. You can toggle on recent form and course history as well to get a full picture of the matchup. Matchups are a big focus for us right now, and we’re stoked this one is now available for those of you that love a good 3-ball parlay like us.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Coming in at a lengthy 7,466 yards as a par 72, Bay Hill is a notoriously difficult golf course with thick, penalizing rough and plenty of opportunities for bogey. Looking at the BTN Course Insights module, we see a sea of red for Bay Hill, including materially lower greens in reg, a scoring average over par, over 3 bogeys per round, and more difficult par 4 and 5 scoring. Bay Hill does not play notably easier than Tour average in any metric we’re tracking.

As for conditions, the course is a bit soft right now from recent rain, which might offer the opportunity for someone to go low tomorrow morning. That said, with a perfect forecast ahead, we expect the course to firm up and offer its usual challenge into the weekend.

Let’s take a look at this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: Bay Hill is one of those courses that demands both accuracy and length off the tee with a bomber’s paradise score of 8.6 and a very high rough penalty. My advice - just hit it long and straight. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 15% weight this week.

• APP: Bay Hill has plenty of long approach shots with players averaging about 10 shots per game over 175 yards, including all four par 3s. The rough is long this year and will be penal as always. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 30% weight this week, plus an additional 15% weight on SG:APP from 175-225 yds in the fairway and tee box.

• ATG: Chipping will play a role this weekend as missed fairways often lead to layups. One design change worth noting is that collection areas have been added around some of the greens which will lead to less chip shots from the rough. The BTN Model includes SG: ATG at a 10% weight this week.

• Putting: There’s actually not much worth noting on the putting front for Bay Hill as most of the challenge of the course is getting to the green. The BTN Model includes standard SG:PUTT at a 10% weight.

• Bogey Avoidance: As we’ve discussed, bogeys are easy to come by at Bay Hill. Because of this, we’ve added bogey avoidance at a 20% weight in our BTN Model this week to reward those that can get up and down and save pars.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. The perennial favorite is back in action this week. We’ll see if he remembers how to play golf in an R1 tomorrow.

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (3-3-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Shane Lowry (-112) ✅ over Min Woo Lee (-118) on DraftKings

The heater cooled off a bit last week as Haotong Li couldn’t get past Brooks Koepka, who turned in a strong weekend performance and took the matchup. That’s golf.

This week the Tour heads to Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational — one of the toughest tests on the schedule and a course that heavily rewards elite ball striking. Bay Hill is a second-shot golf course where approach play and distance control are critical.

That’s why the play this week is Shane Lowry over the Chef. Lowry grades 18th in the BTN Model this week, while Min Woo sits all the way down at 65th. Min Woo’s SG: APP numbers are nearly dead last in the field which is a major concern at Bay Hill. Lowry, on the other hand, excels in the key 175–225 yard approach range.

With Bay Hill demanding precise iron play and patience, Lowry’s ball-striking profile makes him the clear play in this matchup.

GS Luke’s Prop Picks 🎯 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account this year for all of his BTN free plays.

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Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number