The second event of the 2026 PGA Tour calendar brings us the American Express tournament in La Quinta, California. This event is played on three courses: the Pete Dye Stadium Course, the Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club. Players will rotate between these courses for the first 3 rounds before a 54-hole cut and a final round back at the Stadium Course. Only the Stadium Course has ShotLink data, so all course data and shot-level stats on BTN - both historical and live - will be for the Pete Dye Stadium Course only.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

This is a bit of a tricky tournament to handicap for a few reasons, first and foremost being the players spread across 3 courses through the first 3 rounds. The AmEx tends to be quite a birdie fest as well as you can see from DK setting birdie or better lines at 5.5 for most players across all 3 courses. Past winners have reached as low as 29-under and tend to be well into the 20s. There’s a lot of randomness to who wins as plenty of longshots have come away with a victory here.

We have setup the BTN Model this week to cater to the commonalities between the courses as best as possible. Let’s take a closer look at the stats highlighted in this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: Driving accuracy matters the most at La Quinta of the three courses. Overall you really can’t spray the ball, but precision is less important at the other two courses. The BTN Model includes Distance from Edge of Fairway at 10% weight this week to reward those with smaller misses off the tee.

• APP: Iron play and putting are what will separate players this week. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 20% weight, and SG:APP from 80-150 yards from the fairway or tee at an additional 25% weight.

• ATG: Expect a lot of GIRs this weekend, so ATG play won’t impact much. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ATG at a 5% weight this week.

• Putting: Players will need to convert their birdie looks to keep up with the low scoring. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT from 8-20’ at a 20% weight, and Birdie or Better % at an additional 20%.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. Welcome back, world no. 1.

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (0-1-0) 🤼‍♂️ 

Pierceson Coody (-120) ✅ over Wyndham Clark (-105) on DraftKings

I don’t like to harp on the past too much, but if you’ve ever seen the gif of Homer Simpson backing slowly into the bushes, that was me last week after the very poor decision to play Denny McCarthy over SONY OPEN CHAMPION Chris Gotterup in our matchup play.

But listen here, folks. I’m coming straight out of the bushes with this week’s play at The American Express: Pierceson Coody over Wyndham Clark. We’ve got to get this ship turned around quickly, and Coody is checking all the right boxes to even up our record for the year.

Yes, Wyndham has the name recognition and the major championship pedigree, but when you look at recent form and the BTN Matchup Tool, it’s hard not to love Coody as the favorite. The overall tournament model agrees too, with Coody ranked 57th in this field compared to Clark at 90th. And with the three course rotation, you’ve got to be selective with matchup plays because it can get weird in a hurry. That said, I feel confident the form and the numbers back Coody this week to help pay off last week’s debt and get us back in the win column.

ICYMI: New BTN Functionality ⭐️ 

In case you missed it last week, we rolled out a new live hole scoring feature on the Hole Props page to give you insights on how the course is playing relative to par and relative to average, including an option to view the AM/PM wave split hole-by-hole. There are tons of great use cases for this feature including conditions assessments, firing on hole props, seeing the impact of pin placements on individual hole scoring, anticipating AM/PM swings, and much more.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account this year for all of his BTN free plays.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number