⛳️ The 3M Open - Bet The Number Breakdown

Build confidence in your golf bets with BTN analysis delivered fresh to your inbox every week 📨

The PGA tour takes on the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities this week.

The PGA Tour takes on the 3M Open this week at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. The majors of 2025 are officially behind us, and the 3M is the first of two non-signature events before the FedEx Cup Playoffs begin. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

TPC Twin Cities is a 7,431 yard par 71 designed by Arnold Palmer with three par 5s and four par 3s. The course is soft right now from recent rain, the rough is pretty minimal, and the forecast looks pretty mild with little wind or rain expected until potential Sunday afternoon storms. With these conditions and the way the course usually plays, we definitely expect some low scores to be made out there - our boots on the ground report is that the practice rounds are currently a dart-fest.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

  • OTT: Accuracy is important at TPC Twin Cities with plenty of water hazards and a good number of bunkers. Bombing it never hurts, but the course rates out at a 5.5 on the bomber’s paradise scale, so accuracy gets a slight advantage. Players that are hitting fairways will have plenty of good looks into greens to make birdie. The BTN Model features SG:OTT at a 25% weight to reward good drivers of the ball.

  • APP: Approach play will be the key differentiator during this event as players will need to be making birdies to climb the leaderboard. Expect players to be hitting plenty of shots from the 100-190 yard range. The BTN Model features a 45% weighting for approach play this week, with 20% standard SG:APP and 25% SG:APP from 100-190yds.

  • ATG: Around the green play will not be much of a factor this week. Good scrambling may help avoid costly bogeys, but we don’t expect the leaders to be missing a ton of greens. The BTN Model lightly weights Scrambling at just 10%, and no SG:ATG column.

  • Putting: Converting on ample birdie opportunities is the name of the game. The BTN Model features SG:P from 6-15’ at a 20% weight to highlight players that can make their birdie putts.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Cam Champ. Cam won this event back in 2021 and has four top 30s in his past 5 outings, so course history and recent form seem to be converging for him this week.

This week’s top 5 in the BTN Model, with Cam Champ as the favorite.

Matchup of the Week (8-9-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Cameron Champ (+110) ✅ over Sungjae Im (-140) on DraftKings

We’re going to ride our model favorite Cam Champ this week with a juicy plus-money line against Sungjae Im who is ranked almost dead last in the BTN Model. Sungjae has had abysmal approach and putting numbers of recent, and he’s missed 4 cuts in his last 8 events. The one thing Sungjae has going for him is accuracy off the tee, but that won’t do him much good with poor approach play and inefficient putting. Cam on the other hand had a blip last weekend with an MC at the Barracuda, but he’s finished T30 in the remaining 4 of his last 5 events and has consistently been gaining strokes in every part of his game. Considering the recent form of these two players, we’re salivating at this line.

Cam Champ vs Sungjae Im in the BTN Matchup tool

Feature Spotlight 🔦 

This week’s Feature Spotlight: Year-to-date (YTD) Stats on the Custom Model. Especially this time of year, it’s nice to check in on things like OWGR and FedEx Cup Points to see how players will shape up for the upcoming playoffs and for next year’s signature events. These can easily be toggled on and off via the YTD Stats dropdown on the Custom Model page.

Year-to-date (YTD) Stats on the Custom Model

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his 3M Open picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

Join the BTN Community

Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number

Reply

or to participate.