The PGA Tour takes on the RBC Canadian Open this week on the North Course at TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley. This is the last event before the US Open and features an average strength field, including Rory’s first appearance since the PGA Championship. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

This event is TPC Toronto’s PGA Tour debut, so we don’t have any data from prior events at the course. There was an Americas Tour event hosted here last year where the winner came in at -5 while only hitting 46 GIR. We don’t see the Tour players having nearly as much trouble, but it’s tough to see a total birdie fest based on this limited sample.

As for the course itself, TPC Toronto is a relatively long par 70 with only two par 5s. It features quite a bit of variety with six par 4s over 480 yards and two under 380 yards, and two par 3s over 220 yards and two under 160 yards. From our boots on the ground report, the rough is pretty average out there without being too short nor too juicy. The fairways have some run to them right now, but expect this to change after some rain in the forecast overnight. There will be a lot of birdies on the two par 5s (1 & 18), and the toughest stretch of the course is holes 7-11.

Without much data on the course, we’ve prepared a pretty basic BTN model this week:

• OTT: Given all the variety at this course and a number of doglegs, some strategy will come into play off the tee. Long hitters will have an advantage on the long par 4s, but the shorter holes will minimize this advantage. We’re just riding with standard SG:OTT in our BTN model this week.

• APP: We see a lot of approach shots coming from the 120-200 yard range and added extra emphasis to this bucket in the BTN Model. Otherwise, with pretty average rough, we’re looking at standard approach play out there.

• ATG: Nothing extraordinary to call out here. We have ATG play weighted normally and don’t expect it to be a huge differentiator. We did add bogey avoidance to our model this week as players will likely need to get up and down a handful of times, especially on those long par 4s.

• Putting: TPC Toronto features Bent/Poa greens, so we have added the Bent/Poa and Bent filter to SG: Putting.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Rory McIlroy. Rory has finished T10 in all four of his Canadian Open starts, including two wins in 2019 and 2022, and will look to continue his dominance this weekend.

Also worth noting: Luke Clanton, who is making his PGA Tour debut this week, is popping in our model at #2 based on the limited data we have on him. The books seem to like him too at 40:1 outright odds on DraftKings. Should be a fun storyline to follow.

Matchup of the Week (4-6-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Cam Young (+100) ✅ over Wyndham Clark (-125) on DraftKings

This week’s matchup pits the surging Cam Young against a struggling Wyndham Clark. Clark’s recent form is rough, losing strokes tee to green in three of his last four events, and he’s been especially poor on approach, dropping strokes in three straight, including a brutal -7.9 at the Memorial. That’s a major red flag.

Cam Young, on the other hand, is trending in the right direction. He just punched his ticket to the U.S. Open and has posted two top-25 finishes in his last three starts. More importantly, he’s gained strokes in both ball striking and tee to green play in three straight events which is a strong sign he’s rounding into form.

The matchup tool sees value here too, and with Young at even money, we’ll gladly take the upside and back him to keep the momentum rolling.

Feature Spotlight 🔦 

This week’s Feature Spotlight: The Course Info card when there’s no data from past events at the course. For events like this one where the pros are playing a course that hasn’t had ShotLink before, we unfortunately don’t have any data to provide our usual Course Stats. We do, however, have the course scorecard which can still give meaningful insight into the makeup of the course as discussed in the Course Blueprint section.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his RBC Canadian Open picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

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Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number