The PGA Tour takes on the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois, this week. We’re coming off a dramatic Monday finish at the Travelers last week, where Viktor Hovland took down World #1 Scottie. But that’s in the past, because we’ve got one of the more exciting events of the year happening this holiday weekend. IT’S THE JOHN DEERE CLASSIC! Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

A par 71 measuring at 7,327 with only 3 par 5s. There are several holes with less than driver necessary off the tee, so we’re going to see a lot of approach shots between 120-190, and we’ll see the players who separate themselves on the perfect Bent greens.

It is so hot this week, and to make things even better, we’re gonna get some rain and a lot of humidity with it. Based on the forecast, we could get a delay on Friday with some projected storms. Keep an eye on even lower scoring if this course softens up

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Several less than driver holes. Length is helpful, but not as important as in other weeks. The rough is thin, and the course is dry (for now). We used the SG:OTT per round vs. field at a 20% weighting this week

• APP: Look for some darts from short range this week. We used the SG:APP per attempt vs. baseline within a 100-190 yard range at a 35% weighting this week

• ATG: Chipping is not much of a factor this week… the contenders will hit a lot of greens, and so we used SG:ARG per round vs. field at a 5% weighting this week

• Putting: Look for the 8-15 footers to differentiate players with tons of birdie looks in that range. We used the SG:Putting per attempt vs. baseline in that range, filtered to Bent & Bent/Poa greens, at a 20% weighting this week

• Birdie or Better Percentage: The John Deere brings low scores, so we once again threw in BoB percentage to round out the model at a 20% weighting this week

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Jackson Koivun. How’s that for a professional debut? He’s only got 4 guys on the board with lower outright odds than him, and he’s a perfect 10/10 in our model this week. He’s tied with Keith Mitchell at another perfect 10, followed closely behind by Gotterup and a couple of recent form players. Let’s sit back and enjoy one of the biggest tournaments of the year (to some 😉)

Matchup of the Week (11-7-4) 🤼‍♂️ 

Doug Ghim (+100) ✅ over Jacob Bridgeman (-130 on DraftKings

There are some weeks on the PGA TOUR where you just have to punt and move on. But never, ever, under any circumstances, for the John Deere Classic. The fifth major deserves our full attention, obviously.

This week, we’re getting a rare shot at an even-money underdog, and we’re going to lean on the BTN Matchup Tool to back Doug Ghim over Jacob Bridgeman.

Over the last 24 rounds, the matchup tool shows Ghim with the edge in several key categories, and this feels much closer than the odds suggest. The BTN Custom Model has Bridgeman 13th and Ghim 17th overall this week, which is not exactly some massive gap when one guy is laying -130, and the other is sitting there at even money.

TPC Deere Run can fit a lot of different styles, and we’ve seen that over the years with the variety of winners here. But accuracy off the tee still matters, and that’s another box checked for Ghim. He’s hitting 67% of fairways compared to Bridgeman at 61%, which should help him keep the ball in position and give himself plenty of scoring chances.

We’re always looking for slight edges with Bet The Number, and this week the edge looks like the better number on a very live underdog. So give us Ghim at even money, a clean card, and hopefully a brand-new tractor ride straight back to the payout window.

BTN Social Media 🚨 

We’ve brought on a new social media team member at Bet The Number, so keep an eye out for more social posts highlighting data from our platform!

Follow our X account HERE

Follow our Instagram account HERE

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to his X for all of his free BTN plays!

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7-day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Best of luck this week!

Team Bet The Number