The PGA Tour returns to the Blue Monster this week for the first time since 2016. This is our second Signature Event in 3 weeks, following the Masters, so we don’t have the full star-studded lineup you’d think. But the name of the course certainly holds, and we’re still in store for some great golf this week. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

We’ve got a 7,739 beast of a par 72 designed originally by Dick Wilson this week. The course was redesigned by Gil Hanse in 2014, when the course went through a total overhaul. That overhaul led to the longer and tougher golf course we’re going to see this week, which will definitely have players thinking their way around a course they haven’t seen in a long time.

There’s a lot of water out here. I think we’ve all seen the iconic video of Rory throwing his club in the water on the 8th hole from 2015. We’re bound to see some more chaos this week as well on the 2nd longest non-major golf course on the PGA Tour.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Being able to carry the ball 310 helps a lot here, whereas accuracy doesn’t have as much of a premium. We’ve got a combination of SG:OTT per round vs. field + Carry Distance as 2 key metrics in our BTN model this week, with 50% of the weighting.

• APP: You’re going to see a lot more longer approach shots this week, with fewer wedge shots. We didn’t complicate things too much this week and have a combination of SG:APP + Ball Speed as 2 other key metrics in our BTN model this week, with 40% of the weighting

• ATG: It is bunkers galore out here, with very few fairway and rough chipping. We decided to incorporate a simple 5% weight on SG:ARG in our BTN model this week

• Putting: Your 4-10 footers and lag putting are the focus. Mid-range putting not a huge differentiator this week, so we decided to do another simple 5% weight on SG:Putting in our BTN model this week

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Cameron Young. This might be the first time we’ve seen Scottie outside the top 5 of a model in a year? Not that Scottie isn’t a long hitter, and to be fair, he’s still 9.7/10 BTN Score. But as you can imagine, if we’re putting heavy focus on Carry Distance + Ball Speed… the bombers are gonna be towards the top

Matchup of the Week (6-5-2) 🤼‍♂️ 

Sam Burns (-110) ✅ over Hideki Matsuyama (-120) on DraftKings

We’re back after a much-needed break, and this week we head to Doral and the Blue Monster, which is also back after an even longer break. This course hasn’t hosted a PGA Tour event since 2016 after being a regular stop for years, so there’s a little bit of mystery baked in this week. Add in a no-cut format, and this matchup has all the makings of a four-day stress test with palm trees and water hazards.

There are plenty of tough matchups on the board, but we’re riding with Sam Burns to take down the favorite in Hideki Matsuyama.

Both players have been very consistent lately, and both come in with solid recent form, but Burns has been just a little sharper. He’s posted four straight top-25 finishes, including a strong T7 at the Masters and a T16 at the RBC Heritage a couple of weeks ago. Hideki has been steady as well, but the edge for us shows up in the numbers.

Burns checks in 18th in our BTN Model this week, while Hideki sits 36th. Burns also gets the nod in the BTN Matchup Tool, and the biggest difference could come on the greens. We’re on Bermuda this week, and they don’t call him “Bermuda Burns” for nothing. He ranks 1st in this field in putting on Bermuda, and if the flatstick heats up, that may be the dagger that slays Hideki, the Blue Monster, and cashes us another matchup winner.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to his X for all of his free BTN plays!

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Best of luck this week!

Ryan L.

Bet The Number