The PGA Tour Fall Swing continues with the Butterfield Bermuda Championship at Port Royal Golf Course in Southampton, Bermuda. We’re looking at a pretty weak field with only 9 of the top 100 players in the OWGR rankings in the field this week, but it’s PGA Tour golf nonetheless. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Port Royal is a short par 71 course coming in at 6828 yards with three par 5s and four par 3s. We do have three years of history here, but no stroke-level data, so most of our insights are at the round level. This course has produced 4.33 birdies per round in the past three years, a good bit higher than the Tour average of 3.67, and only 2.25 bogeys per round compared with the Tour average of 2.66. The main storyline here is the weather as the wind can really whip down in Bermuda. We’re looking at double digit wind speeds and scattered showers for most of the event which may hamper scoring just a bit.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Guys that hit it long and low tend to play well here as they can stay under the wind. Port Royal is not a tight course so accuracy is not a huge factor. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 15% weight this week, and Low Apex Height at a 25% weight to reward low hitters.

• APP: Players will face several longer approach shots on the long par threes and the par fives, so approach play from 175-225 is an opportunity for players to separate. Beyond that, it’s really a game of managing the wind and trying to get looks at birdies. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 15% weight, and SG:APP from 175-225 yards in the fairway at an additional 10% weight.

• ATG: Short game is not a huge factor here. Bogey avoidance will be important when players miss greens to avoid plus numbers on the scorecard. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ATG on Bermuda grass at a 5% weight this week, and Bogey Avoidance at an additional 10% weight.

• Putting: We’re looking at typical Bermuda greens down in Bermuda (shocking, we know). Players that can convert their birdie looks in the 10-15 foot range will be in good shape by the weekend. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT at a 10% weight, and BoB% at an additional 15% weight.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Rico Hoey, our matchup of the week victor from last week. Rico has been playing some good golf recently with 3 T10s in his last 5!

Matchup of the Week (15-12-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

David Lipsky (+100) ✅ over Kevin Roy (-125) on DraftKings

We cruised to an easy victory last week in our matchup play, but something tells us it won’t be quite as simple for a prestigious event like the Butterfield Bermuda Classic. All bets are off once you cross the Bermuda Triangle and try to make sense of this incredible field. That said, we’re confident taking a gamble on the plus-money underdog David Lipsky over Kevin Roy.

Weather should play a big role this week with steady winds and rain chances every day. Head-to-head, Lipsky holds a clear edge in the matchup tool and ranks slightly higher in the BTN Model — 14th overall compared to Roy at 16th. Both are in decent form and have solid course history, but nothing that jumps off the page.

All things considered, we’ll take the plus-money and trust Lipsky’s steady ball-striking and calm demeanor to hold up when conditions get rough. It might not be pretty, but when the wind starts howling and the leaderboard starts spinning, Lipsky feels like the guy still standing when the chaos clears.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his Butterfield Bermuda Championship picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

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Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number