The PGA Tour takes on the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois this week. We had an exciting finish last week at the Rocket Classic, with the 20 year old Aldrich Potgieter picking up his first win in a playoff. But that’s in the past, because we’ve got one of the more exciting events of the year happening this holiday weekend. IT’S THE JOHN DEERE CLASSIC! Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

A par 71 measuring at 7,289 yards with only 3 par 5’s. There’s several holes with less than driver necessary off the tee, we’re going to see a lot of approach shots between 120-190 and we’ll see the players who separate themselves on the perfect Bent greens.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Several less than driver holes. Length is helpful but not as important as other weeks. The rough is thin and the course is dry. We used the SG:OTT per round vs. field at a 20% weighting this week

• APP: Look for some darts from short range early in the week. We used the SG:APP per attempt vs. baseline within a 100-190 yard range at a 35% weighting this week

• ATG: Chipping will not be much of a factor this week… the contenders will hit a ton of GIRs. We used SG:ARG per round vs. field at a 5% weighting this week

• Putting: Look for the 8-15 footers to differentiate players with tons of birdie looks in that range. We used the SG:Putting per attempt vs. baseline in that range, filtered to Bent & Bent/Poa greens, at a 20% weighting this week

• Birdie or Better Percentage: We think there’s going to be low scores this week, so we once again threw in BoB to round out the model at a 20% weighting this week

This week’s BTN Model favorite is Cameron Champ. Followed by Kevin Yu, Michael Thorbjornsen, Keith Mitchell and Emiliano Grillo.

Matchup of the Week (6-8-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Nico Echavarria (-110) ✅ over Kurt Kitayama (-115) on Draftkings

There are plenty of tempting options on the board this week, but our favorite play is Nico Echavarria in what shapes up as a sneaky-good matchup. According to the Matchup Tool, this one’s tight on paper — but a few key edges tilt things in Nico’s favor. He’s coming off a stellar T6 finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where every part of his game clicked. He gained nearly 11 strokes total, including over 4 with the putter. Kitayama, on the other hand, has stayed ice cold on the greens, losing strokes putting in 4 of his last 6 events. Nico also rates out better particularly in the crucial SG: Approach range from 100–190 yards — a key scoring zone this week in our overall tournament BTN Model. This one may come down to the wire, but we’re hitching a ride with Nico and betting he takes us on a John Deere tractor joyride straight to the payout window.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his John Deere Classic picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

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Best of luck this week!

Ryan L.

Bet The Number