⛳️ Bet The Number Breakdown: The Valspar Championship

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March 19, 2025

The PGA Tour takes on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort in the Valspar Championship

After an exciting playoff finish at The PLAYERS, the PGA Tour moves to the Valspar Championship this week at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort. The field features some big names competing in a full-cut event with 155 total payers. More Florida weather rolls in this week as well with strong winds expected most of Thursday and into Friday morning before calming down for the weekend.

Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

The Copperhead course plays as a par 71 featuring four par 5s and five par 3s. There are a number of less-than-driver tee shots leading to plenty of approach shots from 125-200 yards with trouble lurking, making this course an iron hitter’s delight. The greens and chipping areas are overseeded which will play a factor in the short game.

Let’s take a look at this week’s BTN Model:

  • OTT: With a number of holes not needing a driver, accuracy becomes more important than bombing it here as evident with a bomber’s paradise score of just a 3.1/10. Distance from edge of fairway is featured in the BTN Model again this week to reward accurate OTT players.

  • APP: With the volume of iron shots between 125-200 yards, the BTN model puts a premium on approach shots from this range. Great approach play is essential to avoid trouble throughout the course. For the deep divers out there, right misses tend to be more penalized into these greens.

  • ATG: Scrambling from the overseeded chipping areas at Innisbrook is difficult. Players that have demonstrated an ability to chip well on overseed are rewarded in this week’s BTN Model.

    Innisbrook proves a difficult scrambling course with plenty of chips from the rough still resulting in two-putt finishes.

  • Putting: Two factors play into the BTN Model for putting this week: history on overseed greens, and putting from 4-10 feet. Players that excel from this range will find themselves saving strokes against the competition, with good overseed putters popping in the model.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Tommy Fleetwood. Does Tommy finally have the perfect recipe to secure his first PGA Tour victory? He does have a coveted AM/PM tee time split this week 👀 

This week’s BTN Model, with Tommy Fleetwood as its favorite.

Matchup of the Week (1-0) 🤼‍♂️ 

Michael Kim (-140) ✅ over Byeong Hun An (+110) on DraftKings

The BTN Team started strong last week with Russell Henley securing a victory over Hideki Matsuyama at The Players as Hideki missed the cut. Now, we’re looking to keep the momentum going and make it two in a row. This week’s tournament matchup features the red-hot Michael Kim against an out-of-form Byeong Hun An. Despite cooling off slightly last week, Kim remains the stronger player in this head-to-head. A few errant drives may have cost him some momentum, but overall, his game is in a much better place than Ben An’s right now. More importantly, we trust Kim to drain the crucial putts that An is likely to miss. It’s a full send on Michael Kim in this matchup - let’s make it 2-0!

Michael Kim vs. Ben An in the BTN Matchup tool

Feature Spotlight 🔦 

This week’s Feature Spotlight: the Driving card on the Course tab. A few important stats can be found here:

  1. Number of driver holes: with only 8 at the Copperhead Course, players are often clubbing down off the tee to avoid trouble

  2. Short Penalty / Bomb Opportunity: how much are shorter and longer players penalized or rewarded at this course? While we always expect longer players to have better OTT numbers than shorter players, many courses have short penalties over 1 stroke and bomb opportunities over 2 strokes, making length OTT less of a factor here.

  3. Bomber’s Paradise: Our proprietary metric that blends together several factors to determine how much the bombers gain an advantage on each course. Consistent with our storyline so far, Innisbrook is not much of a bomber’s paradise, primarily rewarding accuracy and tee-to-green play.

Distance OTT is not much of a factor at the Copperhead course.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his Valspar picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

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Best of luck this week - let’s enjoy some great golf!

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