⛳️ Bet The Number Breakdown: The PLAYERS

The golf season is officially in full swing with the arrival of The PLAYERS at TPC Sawgrass. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

TPC Sawgrass rewards accuracy with water in play on 17 holes and a severe rough penalty. This week’s BTN model is built to reflect this:

• OTT: Accuracy and tight dispersions are essential at TPC Sawgrass 🎯 Precision takes priority over bombers here which is why the BTN model features Distance from Edge of Fairway.

• APP: The course calls for many approach shots from 125-175 yards, but some of the most important shots will come outside this range. The BTN Model places an emphasis on approach play from 125-200 yards to account for this.

  

  Approach shot distribution at TPC Sawgrass.

• ATG: There will be many awkward rough and bunker shots at TPC Sawgrass, making ATG an overall factor. However, ATG is not a great predictor of top success here as top contenders will be hitting greens this week.

• Putting: Small greens that are relatively simple will lend themselves to 8-20 foot make rates being a factor.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Collin Morikawa. After a runner up finish at the API last week, will Collin have what it takes to get it done?

Matchup of the Week 🤼‍♂️ 

Russell Henley (-115) ✅ over Hideki Matsuyama (-110) on DraftKings

The BTN Team has our eyes on the Georgia Bulldog this week, fresh off a huge victory in the API. Henley’s accuracy off the tee (11th in the field) gives him a clear edge at TPC Sawgrass where positioning is key, and Hideki’s struggles with the driver (143rd in the field in accuracy) are a real concern. Hideki has been trending in the wrong direction with the big stick since his win at the Sentry earlier this year - a course with very wide fairways. Unless Hideki’s iron play is flawless, it’s hard to see him keeping up with Henley at this track. With the importance of OTT play at The PLAYERS in mind, we like the now 7th ranked player in the world, Russell Henley, over Hideki Matsuyama in this week’s featured matchup.

Feature Spotlight 🔦 

There’s nothing quite like an infamous par 3, and #17 at TPC Sawgrass is among the best of them. The sportsbooks will have tons of lines for this hole, and BTN equips you to attack these.

First, we built a custom model specifically for this hole available in our public BTN models dropdown. We isolated SG: APP from 110-140 yds for this model, and we’ll keep an eye on tee position each round and update accordingly. We also added proximity as a key metric here for those of you that like firing on closest to the pin bets.

Second, we have our Hole Props tool which shows past performance on each hole both in aggregate and filterable to specific players. We love using this tool for hole props and hole 17 here will be no exception.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his PLAYERS picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

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Best of luck this week - let’s enjoy some great golf!