Hello friends… and welcome to Tuesday at the Masters. The Masters has finally arrived, bringing the golf world to the cathedral of golf: Augusta National Golf Club. We’ve come a long way as a platform since this time last year, and we’re especially excited to help you make some winning bets in our first major of the year. Let’s dive into the numbers for the Masters with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

The two most important differentiators at Augusta National are Apex Height and 175-250 yard approach shots. We are going to see some firm conditions this week, which re-emphasizes Apex Height importance. But really, this course comes down to knowing not just where to put it, but how to get there. It’s no secret that experience matters at Augusta… so we’ve factored ANGC history as a notable weight in our model this week.

Key Stats

• Apex Height: To navigate these treacherous (and firm!) greens, and to access tricky hole locations across all four rounds, a steep landing angle is critical to success at Augusta

  • Who does this favor? First timer (as a pro) Aldrich Potgieter leads the field with the highest Apex coming into this week, followed not too far behind by notables like Bryson, Keegan, Ludvig, Knapp, and Griffin

• 175-250 yard Approach Shots: Players will see a good number of long approach shots this week. I think we all remember a certain approach shot from Rory on 15 last year 👀

  • Who does this favor? Leading the way we’ve got Si Woo Kim and Rory followed by Berger and Morikawa. We’ve got some other notable past champions in Adam Scott and Hideki who likely need more help with the putter to put themselves in contention this week.

• SG: Total @ ANGC: I said it above, but this course really is one of those where you need to experience the failure yourself to understand how to truly navigate this course successfully for 4 days. We haven’t seen a first-time winner in a LONG time, and we’re expecting that tradition to remain this week.

  • Who does this favor? Ludvig comes in first here, not shocking with a 2nd and 7th place finish here in his first 2 Masters. Rounding out the top 5 we’ve got Scottie, Patrick Reed, Rory and Morikawa. You could honestly make an argument for anyone in the top 10 of this category to be wearing the coveted green jacket at the end of the week

The BTN Masters Model

Let’s take a look at each strokes gained category as we dive into the BTN Masters 2026 model:

• OTT: Augusta is a driver heavy golf course with wide fairways - but you cannot miss big. Left misses are particularly penalizing at Augusta for those that like niche stats. Length is definitely helpful to hit the right spots and take advantage of the contours of the course. We’ve got SG:OTT paired with Distance from Edge of Fairway combined for 15% in this weeks model

• APP: As discussed earlier, the most important considerations at ANGC are apex height and approaches from 175-250. Also worth noting, because of the par 5’s being lengthened in recent years, wedges have become a factor again. The green jacket is won with great iron play which is why these approach categories are so heavily weighted in our model this week at a whopping 80%

• ATG: Fairway chipping is a key ATG stat at Augusta as there’s not a ton of rough (second cut!) to speak to on the course. We’ve weighted standard SG:ARG at 5% this week.

• Putting: While putting is always important, the emphasis on putting at ANGC is slightly overplayed. Winners will make a few 15-25 footers, but lag putting doesn’t necessarily correlate well to success here. Players that have a lot of lag putts aren’t hitting the ball well enough to win. Those 6-10 foot par saves will be crucial to keep momentum. We’re weighting standard SG:Putting at 15% this week

• SG ANGC: We weighted our entire model at 150/100%, with 35% of that being specifically the L12 rounds at Augusta. We’ve discussed this enough, it’s very important.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. I think we’ve all gotten used to this song and dance now… Scottie will be the betting and modeling favorite until we see a real drop in performance (that we aren’t expecting anytime soon). This could be the week we see one of those players who has come so close in the past but hasn’t been able to break through to that green jacket though. Keep an eye out for the guys slightly behind Scottie on the model leaderboard with decent course history and strong recent form.

Matchup of the Week (6-5-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Keep an eye out for the Tour Junkies Matchup of the week on their X page later today as matchups are released.

Breaking Down the Top of the Odds Board

Let’s take a look at the top 5 guys on the odds board from Bet The Number’s perspective

1. Scottie Scheffler (+490): First in the field in odds, second in the field in SG ANGC, but besides that he doesn’t necessarily seem to be in the same form he was coming into 2022 and 2024 winning the Green Jacket. It’s always possible with Scottie, but at +490 there is likely more value on the board there.

2. John Rahm (+910): Rahm has played incredibly well in his time at LIV, with only 1 event finishing outside the top 10. He’s always capable, he’s a Champion with experience. We don’t keep LIV data on BTN, so we can’t give you SG deep dives, but don’t be shocked if he is on that first page of the leaderboard around 3pm on Sunday.

3. Bryson DeChambeau (+1075): Similar story as Rahm from the LIV data perspective, but without the green jacket. He’s 17th in the field in SG ANGC, and that could be higher if he wasn’t consistently fumbling Amen Corner. He absolutely fits the mold of a player who’s experienced failure and is ready to break through for his first green jacket.

4. Rory McIlroy (+1175): There’s only been 3 times where a player has won back to back Masters. He’s #2 in the field in that SG:APP 175-250, #4 in the field in that SG: ANGC… but a top 10 no win sounds much more likely than the Chairman putting the Green Jacket on Rory this week.

5. Ludvig Aberg (+1700): The Swedish robot is #1 in SG:ANGC after a second and 7th place finish in his first 2 Masters. He’s 6th in Apex height in the field, and frankly he’s been playing great lately. He’s ranked 5th in our model this week and the only question we’ve got is whether he can close out that second nine on Sunday. Nobody knock that power bar out of his hand and he has a good chance of sealing the deal this year for his first Major.

Weather ☀️

A brief course condition summary for past tournament comparisons:

• 2019: relatively soft overall

• 2020: Throwaway year (Fall tournament)

• 2021: Firm at first, then soft conditions over the weekend

• 2022: Very firm

• 2023: Standard conditions, then a big weather delay leading to soft conditions

• 2024: Barely some rain early on, then very firm

• 2025: Started out messy and rainy early in the week but during the tournament ended up being mostly dry

The forecast leading into this week is Dry, Firm and Fast. The main umbrellas you’ll be seeing are on the elusive gnomes they’re selling in the merch shop. Keep an eye on those high apex players, cause as of right now we’re gonna need to see some exceptional approach shots this week. I’m thinking it will play more like the first half of 2021 and then 2022 this year

The Masters in Bet The Number 📊

BTN is locked and loaded with stroke level data from every Masters since 2019 (we don’t like to include 2020 since it was kind of a “throwaway” year, sorry DJ). Here’s a breakdown of how you can best use Masters data when preparing for this week:

Masters Research:

• Course Page: We always recommend starting at the Course page when preparing for an event, and the Masters is no exception. Here you can see how top finishers outperform the field at ANGC, and see the demands of the course across each SG category

• Custom Model: Modeling with Masters data is a smart move, as we highlighted in our BTN Model this week

• Player Page: The Event History feature on the player page has both a Majors only toggle and a search function to filter exclusively on the Masters. The majors are a whole different ballgame, and past success is a great indicator of future success. Dive into each player’s performance across all SG categories as well to see how their form breaks down compared to the demands of Augusta.

• Round Props: A prop bettor’s paradise! The Round & Hole props tab have ever hole at Augusta’s birdie, par and bogey rate + a number of other prop metrics that are offered at the books nowadays. Use these pages to see how every player in the field has performed on each hole in the past.

Live Tracking:

• Hole Hangout: We released this functionality beginning at the Waste Management in February, and we’re excited to keep it rolling this week. Just like you’re able to watch the Masters feeds on Holes 4-6, Amen Corner and Holes 15-16, we’re providing you in depth stats for how those holes have been played in the past + the ability to track real time stats on every hole live throughout the tournament

• Event Center: Once those players tee off Thursday morning, you can also tune into the live Event Center to see real-time stats and analysis for the entire field. Live SG numbers, prop tracking and more.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to his X account for all of his BTN free plays!

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

There’s nothing better than a major. Enjoy this week and good luck with your bets!

Ryan L.

Bet The Number