⛳️ Bet The Number Breakdown: The Masters

Build confidence in your golf bets with BTN analysis delivered fresh to your inbox every week 📨

April 07, 2025

The best players in the world take on the 2025 Masters at Augusta National Golf Club

Table of Contents

Hello friends… and welcome to Monday at the Masters. The Masters has finally arrived, bringing the golf world to the pinnacle of golf: Augusta National Golf Club. Given the significance of this event, we’ve added a few sections to this edition of our newsletter to equip you with as much relevant stats and analysis as possible. With that in mind, let’s dive into the numbers for the Masters with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

The two most important differentiators at Augusta National are Apex Height and 175-250 yard approach shots. The rest is gravy. Okay - a bit of an exaggeration there, but these two stats are truly difference makers for players that outperform at Augusta. Let’s take a closer look at these two stats.

Key Stats

  • Apex Height: To navigate the treacherous greens and access tricky hole locations across all four rounds, a steep landing angle is paramount to success at ANGC.

    • Who does this favor? Unsurprisingly, Bryson DeChambeau boasts the heighest Apex Height coming into Augusta, followed by the Cap, Keegan Bradley. Other notable names toward the top of this stat category: Ludvig (3rd), Brooks (6th), JT (7th), Rory (8th)

  • 175-250 yard approach shots: approaches from this distance are plentiful at ANGC and separate players the most, especially on the par 5s where scoring is easiest.

    • Who does this favor? Ranking 1st in SG:APP from this distance is Xander Schauffele, followed by Viktor Hovland coming off a recent victory at the Valspar. Other notables names toward the top of this stat category: Sepp Straka (5th), Joaquin Niemann (8th), Hideki (16th), Bryson (18th). Notable omission? Scottie Scheffler - coming in at 67th in the field this year, as compared to 11th heading into last year. More on Scottie later.

The BTN Masters Model

Let’s take a look at each strokes gained category as we dive into the BTN Masters Model.

  • OTT: Augusta is a driver heavy golf course with wide fairways - but you cannot miss big. Left misses are especially penal at Augusta for those that like niche factors. Having length is helpful to hit the right landing zones and take advantage of the contours of the course. The BTN Masters Model features standard SG:OTT as the primary OTT factor, with Distance from Edge of Fairway lightly weighted to reward those with smaller misses.

  • APP: As discussed earlier, the most important considerations at ANGC are apex height and approaches from 175-250. Also worth noting - as the par 5s have been lengthened, wedges have become a factor again as well. The green jacket is won with great iron play which is why these approach categories are so heavily weighted in the BTN Masters Model.

  • ATG: Fairway chipping is the key ATG stat at Augusta National as there is essentially no rough to speak of. 20-40 yards is the distance to consider as most missed greens funnel away from the hole. The course rewards creative shots around the green as high shots aren’t necessary for those with an elite bump and run game. That said, ATG is not much of a differentiator here since winners are usually hitting greens, and is only lightly weighted in the BTN Masters Model.

  • Putting: While putting is always important, the emphasis on putting at ANGC has been overplayed in the past. Winners will likely make a few from 15-25 feet, but lag putting doesn’t correlate well to success here; players that have too many lag putts aren’t hitting the ball well enough to win. 6-10 foot putting will be important to keep momentum and save pars in firm and/or windy conditions. In the BTN Masters Model, we’re just taking standard SG:Putt as a normally weighted data point.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. No surprise that the model likes the number one player in the world to go back-to-back this year. Can Scottie pull it off with his form slightly behind where he was in ‘22 and ‘24?

The BTN Masters Model, with Scottie Scheffler as the favorite.

Hunting for an Outright 🕵️ 

Most discourse around the Masters comes down to who will be wearing the green jacket come Sunday evening. With that in mind, we’d like to share a few key trends that are important to consider with the Masters.

First Time Struggles

No player has won the Masters in their first attempt since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, and we don’t expect this trend to break any time soon. Experience around Augusta National is paramount to success as the course is challenging and shrouded in mystique. Players have had limited access to course data over the years as well which makes preparing without playing even harder.

Ball Striking Dominance

5 of the last 7 players to win the Masters were top 20 is strokes gained: ball striking heading into the tournament. The only two that broke this trend were Patrick Reed in 2018 and Hideki Matsuyama in 2021. Given the significance of great approach play at Augusta, we’re looking for players that have been dominant in ball striking with their recent form.

Breaking Down the Top of the Odds Board

Let’s take a look at all the players both we (and the books) think have a solid chance at donning the green jacket on Sunday. First, let’s consider all the guys shorter than 25:1 on DraftKings.

Favorites

  1. Scottie Scheffler: SG: BS 1.486 per round; 2nd in the field.

    As mentioned previously, Scottie is not as good from 175-250 compared to when he won the green jacket in 2022 and 2024. His current numbers are more in line with 2023 when he finished 10th . We still expect him to contend late on Sunday, but it’s worth noting he’s not as sharp lately in a key metric.

  2. Rory McIlroy: SG: BS 1.237 per round; 4th in the field.

    Rory finds himself in some of the best form of his career heading into the Masters. He has more of a complete game than in the past, and if his good putting keeps up, it’s hard to bet against him. With Rory, it’s probably going to come down to strokes gained: mental strength.

  3. John Rahm: SG: BS 0.52 per round; 30th in the field.

    Rahmbo is always capable, but he performed pretty poorly in majors last year, and we don’t have much data on him from his LIV play. He’s finished Top 10 in all of his LIV starts this year, but without better data, there’s not much more to say.

  4. Colin Morikawa: SG: BS 1.535 per round; 1st in the field.

    While Colin is an elite iron player, he is shorter than normal winners here. Colin also has a slightly lower ball flight and hasn’t been elite on longer shots this season. Definitely a contender, but a few red flags to note.

  5. Ludvig Aberg: SG: BS 0.471 per round; 32nd in the field.

    Sickness for a few events has made Ludvig’s numbers look worse than they are. His MC at the Players and this past week at the Valero were related to his short game, which is the same factor that kept him from winning here last season. That said, the AI Generated Swede hits the ball high, far, and consistent. We expect him to contend again this year if the short clubs cooperate.

  6. Bryson DeChambeau: SG: BS 0.926 per round; 13th in the field.

    You never know what you’re going to get with Bryson. He could win just as easily as he could miss the cut. Scoring will be harder for him since he’s playing it as a par 67. Jokes aside, you can never count him out in these big events. He models well with the limited data on hand, but it’s hard to be confident with him yet to crack the top 5 on LIV this season until a 5th place finish this past weekend at Miami.

  7. Xander Shcauffele: SG: BS 0.495 per round; 31st in the field.

    Xander has had elite approach play this year and has been amazing from 175-250. His driver is what’s been holding back his Ball Striking numbers. His putting hasn’t been great so far in 2025 either which is why he is coming in very much under the radar. His driver and putter will need to answer a few questions to contend, but we wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest to see him in the final pairing Sunday.

  8. Justin Thomas: SG: BS 0.85 per round; 16th in the field.

    JT is in his best form since winning a major in 2022. Given value at 25-1, his play from from 175-250 has been above average this year and he’s overall been great approach wise. He hits it plenty high and has good enough carry distance/ball speed to contend. The main question mark for him this week is the putter; if he putts well he could walk away with the green jacket.

  9. Joaquin Niemann: SG: BS 1.125 per round; 7th in the field.

    Despite playing good golf recently, Niemann hits the ball too low to contend here. Plain and simple. He might be a flyer for placement bets, but we wouldn’t recommend an outright.

Honorable Mentions & Sleepers

Despite not cracking 25:1 odds heading into Augusta, there are a few guys still worth mentioning in contention for an outright.

  1. Tommy Fleetwood: SG: BS 0.941 per round; 12th in the field.

    Tommy has driven the ball amazingly this year. He’s been very good inside of 175 yards, but 200-225 has been a problem for him which doesn’t bode well for this week. It’ll be hard to trust him to win, but we can see him contending – especially as wedges matter more on the par 5s.

  2. Shane Lowry: SG: BS 1.159 per round; 6th in the field.

    The Irishman’s Achilles Heel at ANGC his last few outings has been his putting. His game has been strong from 175-200 this year, but not quite as excellent beyond 200. If he drives the ball well and can get the putter going, he can definitely contend.

  3. Russell Henley: SG: BS 0.687 per round; 22nd in the field.

    Winning was long overdue for this often contender, but he hits it too low and not far enough to win this tournament. His T-4 here in 2023 is likely his ceiling. Look for Henley to benefit in softer conditions to hold his approach shots.

  4. Sepp Straka: SG: BS 0.984 per round; 9th in the field.

    Sepp is hitting the ball great from 175-250, but data would suggest he isn’t long enough to win here. If he putts well, he will play well; but it’s hard to see him winning this week. Last year’s T-16 seems pretty achievable again for him at ANGC.

  5. Keegan Bradley: SG: BS 0.972 per round; 10th in the field.

    The Captain ranks 9th in the BTN Model with a high ball flight and great ball striking. If his short game and putter cooperate, he could finish top 20 and even have a chance to push into the top 10.

  6. Taylor Pendrith: SG: BS 1.21 per round; 5th in the field.

    Pendrith has some value at 130-1. He hits it long, high, and well from 175-250. He hasn’t been putting well lately which has kept him from the top of leaderboards, but a top 20 bet has some merit.

  7. Maverick McNealy: SG: BS 0.366 per round; 35th in the field.

    Mav is hitting the ball really well from 175-250 and is a good overall approach player. His apex height is falsely low given his love for the stinger and he can hit it plenty high. He hasn’t chipped and putted to his standard as of late, but if he manages shorter shots he has plenty of value for a top 20.

  8. Nicolai Hojgaard: SG: BS 0.464 per round; 33rd in the field.

    Ranking 16th in the BTN model, Hojgaard also finished T16 at Augusta last year. He hasn’t been driving the ball straight enough for good numbers in that bucket, but he has been elite from 175-200 this season with a long and high ball flight. There’s some value on him popping into a top 10 or top 20 with his numbers.

2025 Tournament Notes 📜 

There have been no major renovations to the course this year, but there are a few items worth noting for this tournament.

Hurricane Helene

There were many trees knocked down at ANGC in the wake of Hurricane Helene. The landscape will be a bit different around the edges of the fairway this year, and the missed fairway penalty could be a bit less on a few holes as such.

New Greens

Holes 1, 15, and 16 have new greens this year. Look for 15 green to be very firm and birdies to be harder to come by than normal this year.

Weather

A brief course condition summary for past tournament comparisons:

  • 2019: relatively soft overall

  • 2020: Throwaway year (Fall tournament)

  • 2021: Firm at first, then soft conditions over the weekend

  • 2022: Very firm

  • 2023: Standard conditions, then a big weather delay leading to soft conditions

  • 2024: Barely some rain early on, then very firm

The forecast leading into tournament week is warm and dry. The conditions leading into Thursday look to be firm and fast, making the course a true test in round 1. However, there is some rain in the forecast for Friday afternoon which could soften up those conditions. If this holds true, look for 2021 to be a comparable year of firm into soft conditions. This will make a low Sunday score achievable for chasers to get into contention late in the event.

If more rain does come in during the tournament, look for this to mitigate some of the advantage for guys with a high apex height. This can allow for lower ball-flight players like Morikawa and Straka thrive.

Matchup of the Week (3-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

We enjoyed a stress-free win this past weekend as Lee Hodges and Kurt Kitayama both missed the cut, but Lee at 4 strokes better. Nice to get some extra cash heading into the Masters. Lines aren’t out yet for matchups at the Masters, so we’ll put our Matchup of the Week out on X once they’re live.

The Masters in Bet The Number 📊 

BTN is locked and loaded with stroke level data from every Masters since 2019 (don’t forget – 2020 is a throwaway year.) Here are some of the best ways to use Masters data when preparing for the 2025 event:

  • Course Page: We always recommending starting at the Course page when preparing for an event, and the Masters is no exception. Here you can see how top finishers outperform the field at ANGC, and see the demands of the course across each Strokes Gained category.

  • Custom Model: Modeling with Masters data is a smart move since players with more experience at Augusta tend to do better. Use course filtering on any of your columns to hone-in on ANGC specific performance.

  • Player Page: The Event History feature on the player page has both a Majors Only toggle and a search function to filter exclusively on the Masters. The majors are a whole different ballgame, and past success is a great indicator of future success. Dive into each player’s performance across all strokes gained categories as well to see how their form breaks down compared to the demands of Augusta.

  • Hole Props: A prop bettor’s paradise. The Hole Props tab has every hole at Augusta’s birdie, par, and bogey rate, plus Fairway Hit and GIR rates. Use the player specific filter as well to see how every player in the field has performed at each hole in the past. If you’re going to fire on hole props, this is a must-stop destination.

  • Live Tournament Tracker: Once the players tee off Thursday morning, tune into the live tournament tracker to see real-time stats and analysis for every player. Between live Strokes Gained numbers, prop tracking, and more, you’ll have plenty of tools at your disposal to track your placed bets and fire on live lines during the tournament.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. His Masters picks will come later this week - stay tuned to his X for all GS Luke content.

Join the BTN Community

That’s all we have for now, folks. Enjoy the greatest week in golf.

Reply

or to participate.