⛳️ Bet The Number Breakdown: The Valero Texas Open

We have officially reached the final event before the Masters is upon us. The Valero Texas Open features a competitive field as some players try to work on their form heading into Augusta while others are trying to earn their berth. Fun tidbit: TPC San Antonio used to be known as the Divorce Course as Greg Norman designed it while going through a public divorce. With that, let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

TPC San Antonio plays as a par 72 with four par 5s and four par 3s. The course plays on the longer side, especially with the north wind forecasted over the weekend. Scoring is relatively difficult here as players average 0.25 less birdies per round vs. Tour average, 0.2 more bogeys per round, and Fairway and GIR rates 8% and 6% lower than average respectively. 

Let’s take a look at this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: Tee shots are demanding here, and wide misses are penalized which is why Distance from Edge of Fairway is factored into this week’s BTN Model. However, there is very little rough this year so fairways hit aren’t quite as important as minimizing big misses. The par 5s play long and will require bombs to get home in 2.

• APP: There are lots of long approaches at TPC San Antonio including difficult par 3s. There are some very demanding 150-200 yard shots for bettors that want to hone their models to the middle of the bag. That said, the BTN Model features additional weighting on SG:APP from 75-125 yards as great wedge players have thrived here over the years.

• ATG: There is no tricky rough at this course making ATG play less of a differentiator, so this stat is weighted less heavily in the BTN Model. One thing to note is that greenside bunkers play very difficult here as they are deep and well off the green.

• Putting: Overseeded greens make for smooth putting surfaces here. There are plenty of 6-10 foot par attempts to be had over the weekend if the weather forecast holds which is why the BTN Model incorporates Bogey Avoidance.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Bud Cauley. Bud is coming off of a T4 finish at the Valspar and T6 finish at The PLAYERS, proving to have pretty strong form right now. Can he pull off a win this week?

Matchup of the Week (2-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Lee Hodges (-110) ✅ over Kurt Kitayama (-115) on DraftKings

We’re dipping back into the “fade Kurt Kitayama” well again this week after Jake Knapp secured us a victory against him in last week’s BTN Matchup of the Week. This time, DraftKings has Kitty matched up against Lee Hodges who rebounded nicely last week, delivering two strong ball-striking rounds on Saturday and Sunday. He’s also ranked 4th in this week’s BTN Model having gained strokes with his irons in five straight starts, and his putter has been much improved this year since working with putting coach Marcus Potter, leading to 5 T20s in his last 8 starts. Meanwhile, Kitayama has been trending in the opposite direction, losing strokes with his irons in three consecutive starts and relying on an unusually hot putter to stay afloat.

With all that in mind, we’re riding the fade-Kitty train once again, with Lee Hodges in the conductor’s seat.

Feature Spotlight 🔦 

This week’s Feature Spotlight: The Event History card on the Player page. Evaluating recent form is essential when you’re eyeing up a player for a bet, and the Event History card shows you all of their tournament history going years back. Some great features of this card include:

• Finish position and score to par

• Strokes Gained breakdowns across all categories

• Filtering by round to identify round-specific trends

• Searching for specific events to see overall event history

• BoB/Par/BoW and Fairway/GIR counters for prop bettors

• A Majors Only filter (which will come in handy next week!)

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his Houston Open picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

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Best of luck this week - just 5 more days until Masters Monday!