The PGA Tour Fall Swing continues this week with the Bank of Utah Championship at the Black Desert Resort in Ivins, Utah. As typical for a fall swing event, there are a few notable names in the field toward the top of the OWGR list like Alex Noren, Maverick McNealy, Kurt Kitayama, Billy Ho, and Jason Day. However, we’re primarily looking at players deeper in the OWGR rankings competing this week. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

The Black Desert course is a longer par 71 with three par 5s and four par 3s. This course was added as a Tour stop last year so we only have one year of history here, but based on last year’s data, look for lots of birdies during this event. The average fairway hit rate was 85% last year compared to the Tour avg of 60%, the GIR rate was 76% compared to a Tour avg of 66%, and the average birdies per round was 4.5 compared to the tour average of about 3.7. The course is pretty firm this week and should provide a fun Fall event to follow.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: While the wide fairways are inviting, players that spray the driver will find themselves in trouble here. Even with the 85% fairway hit rate, accuracy remains a factor to keep players from losing strokes off the tee. Many tee shots don’t call for driver and bombers will likely be hitting the big stick a bit less frequently. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 25% weight, and Driving Accuracy at an additional 10% weight.

• APP: Overall, approach shots are of the longer variety here, especially from 150-200 yards. The par 3s are on the shorter side, but there will be lots of layups on the par 5s with the lava lurking. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 20% weight, and SG:APP from 150-200 yards in the fairway at an additional 20% weight.

• ATG: Around the green play is basic here with good bent grass surrounding the greens. The rough is not overly penal, and the bunkers are ho-hum. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ATG at a 5% weight this week.

• Putting: Players will need to convert their birdie looks to climb the leaderboard this weekend, putting 8-15’ putting at a premium. Top contenders won’t be scrambling much this week. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT at a 15% weight.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Kurt Kitayama, scoring a perfect 10 on the BTN Model. Kitty was playing some good golf down the stretch of the main season and will look to continue his success out in Utah.

Matchup of the Week (14-11-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Mac Meissner (-110) ✅ over Ryan Gerard (-115) on DraftKings

We might have to admit it, of all the matchup plays we’ve ever dropped in this newsletter, this might just be our favorite one yet. It’s a bold strategy, Cotton, but we think it plays out just fine for us. At first glance, this looks like a tight matchup between Meissner and Gerard. But once you dig into the BTN numbers, it’s a landslide. The matchup tool lights up in Meissner’s favor across every key stat except Driving Accuracy where Meissner still sits at the middle of the pack. Meissner also holds a massive edge in our BTN model: 15th overall in the field, compared to Gerard sitting at 98th. Sure, Gerard flashed some form months ago with a win at the Barracuda (a weaker-field event), but Meissner’s been far more consistent posting a runner-up at the Wyndham and two top-15s in his last five starts. Gerard, meanwhile, has sputtered with two T44s and a missed cut over his last four. Gerard can show a little “special sauce” from time to time, but we’re banking on Medium Big Mac to deliver the goods and take us straight to the cash-out drive-thru window in the Utah desert.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his Bank of Utah Championship picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

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Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number